UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1059 — 151 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.** We're leaning Rodriguez here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13).

Cerrone is rated at 1054 — 186 points above Morono's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Morono is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Alex Morono.** The model gives Cerrone a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Morono at 35% implied while our model sees 39% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Geoff Neal (8-5). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Magny at 1270, Neal at 1247. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Magny's all-rounder game against Neal's knockout artist approach. Magny is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Neal is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Geoff Neal.** The model gives Magny a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 37% implied while our model sees 63% — a 27-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Maurice Greene (4-3). Greene is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1275 — 369 points above Greene's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lima is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Greene is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lima the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Greene throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcos Rogerio de Lima over Maurice Greene.** We're leaning Lima here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 65% implied while our model sees 71% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Gregor Gillespie (6-1) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-6). Ferreira is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gillespie is rated at 1554 — 341 points above Ferreira's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gillespie is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gillespie the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Gillespie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Gillespie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gregor Gillespie over Diego Ferreira.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gillespie at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Phil Hawes (4-3) taking on Kyle Daukaus (3-4).

Daukaus is rated at 1170 — 343 points above Hawes's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hawes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Daukaus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Daukaus the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hawes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Daukaus at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Michael Trizano (3-3) taking on Ludovit Klein (7-3-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Trizano.

Klein is rated at 1364 — 291 points above Trizano's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trizano's all-rounder game against Klein's striker approach. Trizano is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Klein brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Trizano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Trizano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ludovit Klein over Michael Trizano.** The model gives Klein a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-3) taking on Tafon Nchukwi (2-3). Nchukwi is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Park is rated at 1235 — 518 points above Nchukwi's 716. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Park's wrestler game against Nchukwi's striker approach. Park looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nchukwi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nchukwi throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JunYong Park over Tafon Nchukwi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Park at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlston Harris (4-2) taking on Christian Aguilera (1-1). Harris is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Harris is rated at 1097 — 182 points above Aguilera's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilera throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Aguilera over Carlston Harris.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aguilera at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Harris, but our model sees only 48%. That 14-point gap favoring Aguilera is worth watching.