UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Saturday, April 24, 2021·Jacksonville, Florida, USA·13 fights
Model: 10/13(77%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Usman 89%11% Masvidal
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+11.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +352(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Usman)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Rose Namajunas won by KO/TKO (R1)
Namajunas 54%46% Weili
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -139(favors Weili)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Weili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Weili)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Valentina Shevchenko won by KO/TKO (R2)
Shevchenko 88%12% Andrade
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+10.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +159(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Shevchenko)
MiddleweightHIT
Uriah Hall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hall 56%44% Weidman
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -74(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.3(favors Weidman)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Anthony Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 46%54% Crute
Over/UnderUnder 64%
Under 64%Over 36%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +164(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Crute)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.7(favors Crute)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Randy Brown won by Submission (R1)
Brown 53%47% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-5.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +204(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Brown)
WelterweightHIT
Dwight Grant won by Decision - Split (R3)
Grant 63%37% Sekulic
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 67% (-4.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +139(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Sekulic)
MiddleweightHIT
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R1)
Allen 53%47% Roberson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-4.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +174(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Roberson)
FeatherweightHIT
Pat Sabatini won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sabatini 68%32% Connelly
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -211(favors Connelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Connelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Connelly)
Early Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Batgerel Danaa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Danaa 52%48% Natividad
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +377(favors Danaa)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Danaa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Natividad)
LightweightMISS
Kazula Vargas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vargas 30%70% Rongzhu
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -163(favors Rongzhu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Vargas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Vargas)
FlyweightHIT
Jeff Molina won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Molina 53%47% Aoriqileng
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Aoriqileng)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Aoriqileng)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Aoriqileng)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Ariane Carnelossi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Carnelossi 47%53% Na
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -262(favors Na)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.0(favors Carnelossi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Na)