UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Saturday, April 24, 2021·Jacksonville, Florida, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Usman 89%11% Masvidal
STRONGMarket: 78% (+11.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +310(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Usman)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Rose Namajunas won by KO/TKO (R1)
Namajunas 54%46% Weili
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Weili)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Weili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Weili)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Valentina Shevchenko won by KO/TKO (R2)
Shevchenko 85%15% Andrade
STRONGMarket: 77% (+7.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +124(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Shevchenko)
MiddleweightHIT
Uriah Hall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hall 51%49% Weidman
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.3(favors Weidman)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Anthony Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 48%52% Crute
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +124(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Crute)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.7(favors Crute)
WelterweightHIT
Randy Brown won by Submission (R1)
Brown 62%38% Oliveira
LEANMarket: 58% (+3.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +251(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Brown)
WelterweightHIT
Dwight Grant won by Decision - Split (R3)
Grant 61%39% Sekulic
LEANMarket: 67% (-5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +92(favors Grant)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Sekulic)
MiddleweightHIT
Brendan Allen won by Submission (R1)
Allen 60%40% Roberson
LEANMarket: 57% (+3.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Allen)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Roberson)
FeatherweightHIT
Pat Sabatini won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sabatini 80%20% Connelly
STRONGMarket: 68% (+12.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -123(favors Connelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Connelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Connelly)
BantamweightMISS
Batgerel Danaa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Danaa 39%61% Natividad
LEAN
→Elo gap: +210(favors Danaa)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Danaa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Natividad)
LightweightMISS
Kazula Vargas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vargas 31%69% Rongzhu
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -109(favors Rongzhu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Vargas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Vargas)
FlyweightMISS
Jeff Molina won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Molina 50%50% Aoriqileng
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Aoriqileng)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Aoriqileng)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Aoriqileng)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Ariane Carnelossi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Carnelossi 48%52% Na
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -170(favors Na)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.0(favors Carnelossi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Na)