UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9).

Usman is rated at 1828 — 249 points above Masvidal's 1579. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Usman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Usman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Jorge Masvidal. The model is firm on this one: Usman at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 78% implied while our model sees 89% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Zhang Weili (10-2).

Weili is rated at 1649 — 228 points above Namajunas's 1421. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili has won 5 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Weili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Zhang Weili. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Namajunas at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Shevchenko is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 682 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Shevchenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Jessica Andrade. The model is firm on this one: Shevchenko at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Shevchenko at 77% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-8) taking on Chris Weidman (12-7).

Hall is rated at 1378 — 318 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hall's striker game against Weidman's wrestler approach. Hall brings a versatile approach, while Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over Chris Weidman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hall at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Jimmy Crute (5-4-2). Smith is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Crute at 1151 versus Smith at 1070. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Crute is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Crute the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Crute throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Crute has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmy Crute over Anthony Smith. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Crute at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 447 points above Oliveira's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Brown over Alex Oliveira. The model gives Brown a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 58% implied while our model sees 62% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Dwight Grant (3-4) taking on Stefan Sekulic (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sekulic at 920 versus Grant at 830. That 90-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sekulic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dwight Grant over Stefan Sekulic. The model gives Grant a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Grant, but our model sees only 61%. That 5-point gap favoring Sekulic is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Karl Roberson (4-5).

Allen is rated at 1696 — 879 points above Roberson's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Roberson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Allen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Roberson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Karl Roberson. The model gives Allen a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (7-2) taking on Tristan Connelly (1-1).

Sabatini is rated at 1425 — 479 points above Connelly's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Connelly throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Connelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sabatini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Sabatini over Tristan Connelly. The model is firm on this one: Sabatini at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Sabatini at 68% implied while our model sees 80% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Batgerel Danaa (3-3) taking on Kevin Natividad (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Danaa at 887 versus Natividad at 758. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danaa throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Natividad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Danaa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Natividad over Batgerel Danaa. The model gives Natividad a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Kazula Vargas (1-2) taking on Rongzhu (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rongzhu at 1058 versus Vargas at 928. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vargas throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vargas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rongzhu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rongzhu over Kazula Vargas. We're leaning Rongzhu here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Jeff Molina (2-0) taking on Aoriqileng (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Molina at 1201 versus Aoriqileng at 1106. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aoriqileng throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Aoriqileng is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aoriqileng has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aoriqileng over Jeff Molina. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aoriqileng at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Ariane Carnelossi (3-2) taking on Liang Na (0-3). Na is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Carnelossi is rated at 929 — 339 points above Na's 590. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carnelossi throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Na is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Na has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liang Na over Ariane Carnelossi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Na at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.