UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad
Saturday, March 13, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight
Edwards 65%35% Muhammad
LEANMarket: 70% (-5.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -151(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Muhammad)
Light Heavyweight✓
Ryan Spann won by KO/TKO (R1)
Spann 59%41% Cirkunov
LEANMarket: 46% (+13.3% edge)
Submission Artist vs Submission Artist — Submission Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -110(favors Cirkunov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Cirkunov)
Featherweight✓
Dan Ige won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ige 63%37% Tucker
LEANMarket: 58% (+5.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Ige)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Tucker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Tucker)
Bantamweight✗
Davey Grant won by KO/TKO (R2)
Grant 23%77% Martinez
STRONGMarket: 26% (-3.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -162(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Grant)
Flyweight✗
Matheus Nicolau won by Decision - Split (R3)
Nicolau 37%63% Kape
LEANMarket: 45% (-8.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +155(favors Nicolau)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Nicolau)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Kape)
Middleweight
Anders 41%59% Stewart
LEANMarket: 38% (+3.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +166(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Stewart)
Women's Strawweight✓
Angela Hill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hill 80%20% Yoder
STRONGMarket: 77% (+3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +138(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Yoder)
Featherweight✓
Charles Jourdain won by KO/TKO (R3)
Jourdain 78%22% Rojo
STRONGMarket: 70% (+8.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +76(favors Jourdain)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Jourdain)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rojo)
Bantamweight✓
Rani Yahya won by Submission (R2)
Yahya 54%46% Rodriguez
TOSS-UPMarket: 73% (-18.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +221(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Yahya)
→Takedown rate advantage: -21.4(favors Rodriguez)
Lightweight✓
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Haqparast 86%14% Garcia
STRONGMarket: 75% (+10.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +165(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.7(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Garcia)
Women's Flyweight✓
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Split (R3)
Aldrich 56%44% Casey
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Aldrich)
Women's Strawweight✗
Jinh Yu Frey won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Frey 38%62% Paula
LEANMarket: 35% (+3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -169(favors Paula)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Frey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Frey)
Welterweight✓
Matthew Semelsberger won by KO/TKO (R1)
Semelsberger 63%37% Witt
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Semelsberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Semelsberger)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Witt)