UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Belal Muhammad (15-4). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 151 points above Edwards's 1596. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Muhammad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Leon Edwards over Belal Muhammad.** The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Edwards, but our model sees only 65%. That 6-point gap favoring Muhammad is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Misha Cirkunov (6-6). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Spann is rated at 1116 — 249 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cirkunov throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Spann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Spann over Misha Cirkunov.** The model gives Spann a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Spann at 46% implied while our model sees 59% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Gavin Tucker (4-2). Ige will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ige is rated at 1235 — 217 points above Tucker's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tucker looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tucker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tucker throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tucker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Ige over Gavin Tucker.** The model gives Ige a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ige at 58% implied while our model sees 63% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-6) taking on Jonathan Martinez (10-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 1343 versus Grant at 1200. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Grant's wrestler game against Martinez's striker approach. Grant looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Martinez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Davey Grant.** The model is firm on this one: Martinez at 77%. The market implies 26% for Grant, but our model sees only 23%. That 3-point gap favoring Martinez is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Matheus Nicolau (7-3) taking on Manel Kape (6-3).

Kape is rated at 1586 — 553 points above Nicolau's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nicolau's knockout artist game against Kape's all-rounder approach. Nicolau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Kape is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nicolau throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kape is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manel Kape over Matheus Nicolau.** The model gives Kape a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 45% for Nicolau, but our model sees only 37%. That 8-point gap favoring Kape is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6).

Anders is rated at 1106 — 166 points above Stewart's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Anders's striker game against Stewart's all-rounder approach. Anders brings a versatile approach, while Stewart is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Anders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Stewart over Eryk Anders.** The model gives Stewart a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Ashley Yoder (3-7). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hill is rated at 1074 — 308 points above Yoder's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yoder looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Yoder the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Angela Hill over Ashley Yoder.** The model is firm on this one: Hill at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Hill at 77% implied while our model sees 80% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Marcelo Rojo (0-2).

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 570 points above Rojo's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rojo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rojo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Marcelo Rojo.** The model is firm on this one: Jourdain at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Jourdain at 70% implied while our model sees 78% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Ray Rodriguez (0-1). Rodriguez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yahya at 1030 versus Rodriguez at 893. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yahya throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 21.4 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rani Yahya over Ray Rodriguez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yahya at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 73% for Yahya, but our model sees only 54%. That 18-point gap favoring Rodriguez is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Rafa Garcia (5-4). Haqparast is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Garcia is rated at 1419 — 185 points above Haqparast's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Haqparast's striker game against Garcia's wrestler approach. Haqparast brings a versatile approach, while Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over Rafa Garcia.** The model is firm on this one: Haqparast at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Haqparast at 75% implied while our model sees 86% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features JJ Aldrich (9-6) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8).

Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 175 points above Casey's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aldrich's striker game against Casey's wrestler approach. Aldrich brings a versatile approach, while Casey looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldrich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Cortney Casey.** The model gives Aldrich a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jinh Yu Frey (2-5) taking on Gloria de Paula (1-2). Paula is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Paula at 815 versus Frey at 730. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frey throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Frey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Paula has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gloria de Paula over Jinh Yu Frey.** The model gives Paula a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Frey at 35% implied while our model sees 38% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Matthew Semelsberger (5-5) taking on Jason Witt (2-3). Semelsberger is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Semelsberger carries a modest Elo edge (861 to 824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Semelsberger's knockout artist game against Witt's wrestler approach. Semelsberger is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Witt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Semelsberger throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Witt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Semelsberger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matthew Semelsberger over Jason Witt.** The model gives Semelsberger a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.