UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✓
Anthony Hernandez won by Submission (R4)
Hernandez 67%33% Dolidze
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.4(favors Hernandez)
Bantamweight✓
Steve Erceg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Erceg 62%38% Osbourne
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Erceg)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Erceg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Osbourne)
Women's Strawweight✓
Iasmin Lucindo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lucindo 69%31% Hill
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Lucindo)
Featherweight✗
Andre Fili won by Decision - Split (R3)
Fili 37%63% Rodriguez
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Rodriguez)
Bantamweight✓
Jean Matsumoto won by Decision - Split (R3)
Matsumoto 54%46% Johns
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +2(favors Matsumoto)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Matsumoto)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Matsumoto)
Middleweight✓
Christian Leroy Duncan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Duncan 65%35% Anders
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Duncan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Anders)
Light Heavyweight✓
Julius Walker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Walker 77%23% Cerqueira
STRONG
→Elo gap: +136(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Walker)
Bantamweight✓
Elijah Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 81%19% Kazama
STRONG
→Elo gap: +162(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Smith)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Joselyne Edwards won by KO/TKO (R1)
Edwards 74%26% Cachoeira
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +69(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Cachoeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Edwards)
Welterweight✗
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Medic 48%52% Urbina
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +121(favors Medic)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Urbina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Urbina)
Women's Flyweight✓
Gabriella Fernandes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fernandes 65%35% Stoliarenko
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +198(favors Fernandes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Fernandes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Stoliarenko)
Light Heavyweight✗
Eric McConico won by Decision - Split (R3)
McConico 44%56% Brundage
LEAN
→Elo gap: -46(favors Brundage)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Brundage)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Brundage)