UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Saturday, August 9, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 10/12(83%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Anthony Hernandez won by Submission (R4)
Hernandez 68%32% Dolidze
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +65(favors Hernandez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.4(favors Hernandez)
BantamweightHIT
Steve Erceg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Erceg 82%18% Osbourne
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+1.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +168(favors Erceg)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Erceg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Osbourne)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Iasmin Lucindo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lucindo 74%26% Hill
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+12.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Lucindo)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Lucindo)
FeatherweightMISS
Andre Fili won by Decision - Split (R3)
Fili 27%73% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (-4.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Rodriguez)
BantamweightHIT
Jean Matsumoto won by Decision - Split (R3)
Matsumoto 71%29% Johns
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +9(favors Matsumoto)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Matsumoto)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Matsumoto)
MiddleweightHIT
Christian Leroy Duncan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Duncan 88%12% Anders
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+8.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Anders)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Duncan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Anders)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Julius Walker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Walker 77%23% Cerqueira
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +204(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Walker)
BantamweightHIT
Elijah Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 86%14% Kazama
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 85% (+1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +219(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Smith)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Joselyne Edwards won by KO/TKO (R1)
Edwards 90%10% Cachoeira
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+13.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Cachoeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Edwards)
WelterweightHIT
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Medic 74%26% Urbina
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +267(favors Medic)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Urbina)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Urbina)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Gabriella Fernandes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fernandes 85%15% Stoliarenko
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+6.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +283(favors Fernandes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Fernandes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Stoliarenko)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Eric McConico won by Decision - Split (R3)
McConico 33%67% Brundage
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-1.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -54(favors Brundage)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Brundage)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Brundage)