UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on Roman Dolidze (9-3).

Hernandez carries a modest Elo edge (1602 to 1546), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Both fighters bring momentum: Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one, while Dolidze has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's wrestler game against Dolidze's striker approach. Hernandez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dolidze brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Roman Dolidze.** We're leaning Hernandez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Steve Erceg (3-3) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-7). Osbourne will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Erceg is rated at 1179 — 334 points above Osbourne's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erceg throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Erceg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Steve Erceg over Ode Osbourne.** The model gives Erceg a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Iasmin Lucindo (4-2) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

Lucindo is rated at 1309 — 236 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucindo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo over Angela Hill.** We're leaning Lucindo here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Christian Rodriguez (5-3). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fili at 1140 versus Rodriguez at 1041. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Fili's striker game against Rodriguez's wrestler approach. Fili brings a versatile approach, while Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Rodriguez over Andre Fili.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jean Matsumoto (3-1) taking on Miles Johns (6-4).

Matsumoto is rated at 1200 — 156 points above Johns's 1044. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matsumoto throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Matsumoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jean Matsumoto over Miles Johns.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Matsumoto at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (5-2) taking on Eryk Anders (9-8). Duncan will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duncan is rated at 1424 — 319 points above Anders's 1106. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Eryk Anders.** The model gives Duncan a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Julius Walker (1-1) taking on Rafael Cerqueira (0-3).

Walker is rated at 983 — 256 points above Cerqueira's 727. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerqueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julius Walker over Rafael Cerqueira.** The model is firm on this one: Walker at 77%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Elijah Smith (1-0) taking on Toshiomi Kazama (1-2). Smith is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Smith is rated at 1143 — 306 points above Kazama's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elijah Smith over Toshiomi Kazama.** The model is firm on this one: Smith at 81%.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (7-4) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-7). Edwards will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 417 points above Cachoeira's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Edwards's wrestler game against Cachoeira's striker approach. Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cachoeira brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Priscila Cachoeira.** We're leaning Edwards here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Uros Medic (6-3) taking on Gilbert Urbina (1-2). Urbina is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Medic is rated at 1484 — 654 points above Urbina's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Urbina throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Urbina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gilbert Urbina over Uros Medic.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Urbina at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gabriella Fernandes (2-2) taking on Julija Stoliarenko (2-6).

Fernandes is rated at 1122 — 280 points above Stoliarenko's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fernandes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoliarenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriella Fernandes over Julija Stoliarenko.** We're leaning Fernandes here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eric McConico (1-1) taking on Cody Brundage (5-6). McConico will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

McConico carries a modest Elo edge (928 to 870), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brundage throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. McConico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Brundage over Eric McConico.** The model gives Brundage a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.