UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5). Gane is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gane is rated at 1884 — 499 points above Rozenstruik's 1385. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gane's all-rounder game against Rozenstruik's striker approach. Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rozenstruik brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Jairzinho Rozenstruik.** The model gives Gane a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9).

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 372 points above Krylov's 1400. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ankalaev's striker game against Krylov's wrestler approach. Ankalaev brings a versatile approach, while Krylov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ankalaev throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Nikita Krylov.** We're leaning Ankalaev here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Montana De La Rosa (5-5-1) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rosa at 1036, Silva at 1016. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Montana De La Rosa over Mayra Bueno Silva.** We're leaning Rosa here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Pedro Munhoz (10-9) taking on Jimmie Rivera (7-3). Rivera will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rivera carries a modest Elo edge (1277 to 1211), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Munhoz's knockout artist game against Rivera's all-rounder approach. Munhoz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Rivera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over Pedro Munhoz.** The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Kevin Croom (0-2).

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 384 points above Croom's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Croom throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Caceres over Kevin Croom.** We're leaning Caceres here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-6) taking on Alexander Hernandez (9-7).

Hernandez is rated at 1469 — 345 points above Moises's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Moises's wrestler game against Hernandez's striker approach. Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hernandez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Moises has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Thiago Moises.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hernandez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alexis Davis (7-6) taking on Sabina Mazo (3-3).

Davis is rated at 1030 — 226 points above Mazo's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mazo throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Mazo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sabina Mazo over Alexis Davis.** We're leaning Mazo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ronnie Lawrence (2-1) taking on Vince Cachero (0-1).

Lawrence is rated at 1079 — 270 points above Cachero's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachero throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cachero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lawrence has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ronnie Lawrence over Vince Cachero.** The model gives Lawrence a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on Maxim Grishin (2-2).

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 365 points above Grishin's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Grishin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Maxim Grishin.** The model gives Jacoby a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.