UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis
Saturday, February 20, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightMISS
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lewis 24%76% Blaydes
STRONGMarket: 22% (+1.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Blaydes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.6(favors Blaydes)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Yana Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 26%74% Vieira
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (-3.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -124(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Santos)
FeatherweightMISS
Darrick Minner won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Minner 27%73% Rosa
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-9.6% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -37(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Minner)
HeavyweightHIT
Chris Daukaus won by KO/TKO (R1)
Daukaus 56%44% Oleinik
LEANMarket: 61% (-4.6% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.5(favors Daukaus)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Oleinik)
MiddleweightHIT
Phil Hawes won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Hawes 63%37% Imavov
LEANMarket: 53% (+10.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +43(favors Hawes)
→Striking volume advantage: +18.8(favors Hawes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Imavov)
HeavyweightHIT
Tom Aspinall won by Submission (R2)
Aspinall 75%25% Arlovski
STRONGMarket: 69% (+6.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Aspinall)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.9(favors Aspinall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.4(favors Aspinall)
FeatherweightHIT
Jared Gordon won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gordon 52%48% Chavez
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +37(favors Gordon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Chavez)
BantamweightHIT
John Castaneda won by KO/TKO (R1)
Castaneda 63%37% Wineland
LEANMarket: 54% (+8.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -171(favors Wineland)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Castaneda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wineland)
FeatherweightMISS
Julian Erosa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Erosa 46%54% Landwehr
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-5.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Landwehr)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Landwehr)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Erosa)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Casey O'Neill won by KO/TKO (R2)
O'Neill 54%46% Dobson
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-2.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors O'Neill)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Dobson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Dobson)
BantamweightMISS
Aiemann Zahabi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Zahabi 39%61% Rodriguez
LEANMarket: 38% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -125(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Zahabi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Zahabi)
HeavyweightHIT
Serghei Spivac won by KO/TKO (R2)
Spivac 60%40% Vanderaa
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Spivac)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Spivac)