UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Curtis Blaydes (13-5).

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 268 points above Lewis's 1366. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blaydes throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.6 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Derrick Lewis.** The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (6-5) taking on Ketlen Vieira (9-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Santos at 1304, Vieira at 1294. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vieira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Yana Santos.** We're leaning Vieira here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 30% for Santos, but our model sees only 26%. That 4-point gap favoring Vieira is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Darrick Minner (2-3) taking on Charles Rosa (5-7).

Minner carries a modest Elo edge (864 to 817), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Minner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Minner the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Minner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Rosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Rosa over Darrick Minner.** We're leaning Rosa here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Minner, but our model sees only 27%. That 10-point gap favoring Rosa is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Chris Daukaus (4-3) taking on Aleksei Oleinik (9-7). Oleinik will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Daukaus carries a modest Elo edge (1108 to 1073), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Daukaus's striker game against Oleinik's submission artist approach. Daukaus brings a versatile approach, while Oleinik is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Daukaus over Aleksei Oleinik.** The model gives Daukaus a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Daukaus, but our model sees only 56%. That 5-point gap favoring Oleinik is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Phil Hawes (4-3) taking on Nassourdine Imavov (8-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Imavov.

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 1050 points above Hawes's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Imavov has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hawes throws significantly more leather — a 18.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Imavov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hawes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Hawes over Nassourdine Imavov.** The model gives Hawes a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hawes at 53% implied while our model sees 63% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 1060 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Aspinall's knockout artist game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Aspinall is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aspinall throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Aspinall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Aspinall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Aspinall over Andrei Arlovski.** The model is firm on this one: Aspinall at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Aspinall at 69% implied while our model sees 75% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Danny Chavez (1-1-1).

Gordon is rated at 1209 — 348 points above Chavez's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Chavez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Chavez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jared Gordon over Danny Chavez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gordon at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Gordon at 44% implied while our model sees 52% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features John Castaneda (4-3) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-9).

Castaneda is rated at 1117 — 252 points above Wineland's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Castaneda's all-rounder game against Wineland's striker approach. Castaneda is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Wineland brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castaneda throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wineland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wineland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: John Castaneda over Eddie Wineland.** The model gives Castaneda a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Castaneda at 54% implied while our model sees 63% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Nate Landwehr (5-4). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 301 points above Landwehr's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Landwehr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Landwehr over Julian Erosa.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Landwehr at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 51% for Erosa, but our model sees only 46%. That 5-point gap favoring Landwehr is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Casey O'Neill (4-2) taking on Shana Dobson (2-3).

O'Neill is rated at 1172 — 324 points above Dobson's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is O'Neill's all-rounder game against Dobson's striker approach. O'Neill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dobson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dobson throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Neill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Casey O'Neill over Shana Dobson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward O'Neill at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) taking on Drako Rodriguez (0-1).

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 832 points above Rodriguez's 754. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zahabi throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Zahabi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Drako Rodriguez over Aiemann Zahabi.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (8-6) taking on Jared Vanderaa (1-5).

Spivac is rated at 1355 — 684 points above Vanderaa's 671. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Spivac's submission artist game against Vanderaa's striker approach. Spivac is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Vanderaa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spivac throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Vanderaa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Jared Vanderaa.** The model gives Spivac a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.