UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
Saturday, February 13, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by KO/TKO (R3)
Usman 78%22% Burns
STRONGMarket: 71% (+7.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +213(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Usman)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grasso 60%40% Barber
LEANMarket: 57% (+3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Barber)
MiddleweightHIT
Kelvin Gastelum won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gastelum 56%44% Heinisch
LEANMarket: 65% (-9.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Heinisch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Heinisch)
FeatherweightHIT
Ricky Simon won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Simon 78%22% Kelleher
STRONGMarket: 69% (+8.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Simon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.5(favors Simon)
MiddleweightMISS
Julian Marquez won by Submission (R3)
Marquez 42%58% Pitolo
LEANMarket: 61% (-18.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +122(favors Marquez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Pitolo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Pitolo)
MiddleweightMISS
Anthony Hernandez won by Submission (R2)
Hernandez 28%72% Vieira
CONFIDENTMarket: 22% (+5.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -296(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Vieira)
WelterweightHIT
Belal Muhammad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muhammad 79%21% Lima
STRONGMarket: 74% (+4.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +319(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Muhammad)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Polyana Viana won by Submission (R1)
Viana 58%42% Martin
LEANMarket: 41% (+16.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -5(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Viana)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Viana)
Catch WeightHIT
Chris Gutierrez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gutierrez 58%42% Ewell
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Ewell)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Ewell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Gutierrez)
WelterweightHIT
Gabe Green won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Green 53%47% Rowe
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Rowe)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.5(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rowe)