UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-8). Usman is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Usman is rated at 1828 — 449 points above Burns's 1379. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Gilbert Burns.** The model is firm on this one: Usman at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 71% implied while our model sees 78% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Alexa Grasso (8-4-1) taking on Maycee Barber (9-2).

Barber is rated at 1543 — 167 points above Grasso's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Grasso's all-rounder game against Barber's striker approach. Grasso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barber brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Maycee Barber.** The model gives Grasso a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Grasso at 57% implied while our model sees 60% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Kelvin Gastelum (13-10) taking on Ian Heinisch (3-3).

Gastelum is rated at 1340 — 303 points above Heinisch's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Heinisch throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Heinisch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Heinisch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kelvin Gastelum over Ian Heinisch.** The model gives Gastelum a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Gastelum, but our model sees only 56%. That 10-point gap favoring Heinisch is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-5) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-8). Simon will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Simon is rated at 1223 — 458 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Simon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kelleher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Simon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simon throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Simon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricky Simon over Brian Kelleher.** The model is firm on this one: Simon at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Simon at 69% implied while our model sees 78% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Julian Marquez (3-4) taking on Maki Pitolo (1-4). Pitolo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pitolo carries a modest Elo edge (696 to 660), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Marquez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pitolo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Marquez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pitolo throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pitolo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Pitolo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maki Pitolo over Julian Marquez.** The model gives Pitolo a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Marquez, but our model sees only 42%. That 19-point gap favoring Pitolo is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on Rodolfo Vieira (6-3).

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 534 points above Vieira's 1069. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vieira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rodolfo Vieira over Anthony Hernandez.** We're leaning Vieira here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Hernandez at 22% implied while our model sees 28% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Dhiego Lima (4-6). Lima is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 804 points above Lima's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muhammad's all-rounder game against Lima's striker approach. Muhammad is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Dhiego Lima.** The model is firm on this one: Muhammad at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Muhammad at 74% implied while our model sees 79% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Polyana Viana (4-6) taking on Mallory Martin (1-2). Viana will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Viana carries a modest Elo edge (868 to 794), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Viana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Polyana Viana over Mallory Martin.** The model gives Viana a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Viana at 41% implied while our model sees 58% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Andre Ewell (4-4). Ewell will look to use a 8-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 431 points above Ewell's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gutierrez's all-rounder game against Ewell's striker approach. Gutierrez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ewell brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ewell throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gutierrez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Andre Ewell.** The model gives Gutierrez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Gabe Green (2-3) taking on Phil Rowe (4-4). Rowe is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Green carries a modest Elo edge (1082 to 1041), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 8.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Rowe is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rowe has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabe Green over Phil Rowe.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Green at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.