UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-12) taking on Devin Clark (8-9). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Smith.

Smith is rated at 1231 — 158 points above Clark's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Smith's all-rounder game against Clark's striker approach. Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Clark brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devin Clark over Anthony Smith. The model gives Clark a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Miguel Baeza (3-4) taking on Takashi Sato (2-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Baeza.

Baeza carries a modest Elo edge (930 to 900), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Baeza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sato brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Baeza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baeza throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Baeza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Baeza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miguel Baeza over Takashi Sato. We're leaning Baeza here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Parker Porter (4-4) taking on Josh Parisian (2-5). Parisian is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Porter at 891 versus Parisian at 791. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Porter throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Parisian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Parisian over Parker Porter. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Parisian at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Bill Algeo (5-5) taking on Spike Carlyle (1-2). Algeo is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Algeo carries a modest Elo edge (961 to 898), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Carlyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Carlyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Spike Carlyle over Bill Algeo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carlyle at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Norma Dumont (9-2) taking on Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-6).

Dumont is rated at 1615 — 881 points above Evans-Smith's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evans-Smith throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Evans-Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Norma Dumont over Ashlee Evans-Smith. We're leaning Dumont here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Pearce (5-4) taking on Kai Kamaka (2-2-1). Pearce is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Pearce is rated at 1083 — 256 points above Kamaka's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kamaka throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kamaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Kamaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over Kai Kamaka. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pearce at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Anderson Dos Santos (1-3) taking on Martin Day (0-4). Day is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 858 — 275 points above Day's 583. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Day throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Day has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anderson Dos Santos over Martin Day. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gina Mazany (2-6) taking on Rachael Ostovich (1-3). Mazany is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Mazany carries a modest Elo edge (649 to 605), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mazany throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ostovich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Ostovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gina Mazany over Rachael Ostovich. The model gives Mazany a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Sumudaerji (6-4) taking on Malcolm Gordon (2-5).

Sumudaerji is rated at 1173 — 407 points above Gordon's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Sumudaerji rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Sumudaerji is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gordon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gordon the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sumudaerji throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sumudaerji is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sumudaerji over Malcolm Gordon. We're leaning Sumudaerji here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Catch Weight matchup features Nate Maness (5-2) taking on Luke Sanders (3-5). Maness is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Maness is rated at 1214 — 300 points above Sanders's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Maness's knockout artist game against Sanders's all-rounder approach. Maness is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sanders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Maness is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Maness over Luke Sanders. The model is firm on this one: Maness at 80%.