UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark lands on Saturday, November 28, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith vs Devin ClarkLight Heavyweight | Devin Clark | Lean | 64% |
| Miguel Baeza vs Takashi SatoWelterweight | Miguel Baeza | Confident | 75% |
| Parker Porter vs Josh ParisianHeavyweight | Josh Parisian | Toss-up | 55% |
| Bill Algeo vs Spike CarlyleFeatherweight | Spike Carlyle | Lean | 56% |
| Norma Dumont vs Ashlee Evans-SmithWomen's Bantamweight | Norma Dumont | Lean | 63% |
| Jonathan Pearce vs Kai KamakaFeatherweight | Kai Kamaka | Lean | 58% |
| Anderson Dos Santos vs Martin DayBantamweight | Martin Day | Lean | 59% |
| Gina Mazany vs Rachael OstovichWomen's Flyweight | Gina Mazany | Lean | 58% |
| Sumudaerji vs Malcolm GordonFlyweight | Sumudaerji | Confident | 65% |
| Nate Maness vs Luke SandersCatch Weight | Nate Maness | Lean | 61% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Anthony Smith vs Devin Clark
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Devin Clark (8-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Smith.
There's a real Elo separation here: Smith at 1070 versus Clark at 944. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Smith's all-rounder game against Clark's striker approach. Smith is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Clark brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Devin Clark over Anthony Smith. The model gives Clark a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Miguel Baeza vs Takashi Sato
The Welterweight matchup features Miguel Baeza (3-3) taking on Takashi Sato (2-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Baeza.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Baeza at 850, Sato at 855. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Baeza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sato brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Baeza the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Baeza throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Baeza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Baeza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Miguel Baeza over Takashi Sato. We're leaning Baeza here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Parker Porter vs Josh Parisian
The Heavyweight matchup features Parker Porter (4-3) taking on Josh Parisian (2-4). Parisian is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Porter at 883 versus Parisian at 772. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Porter throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Parisian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Parisian over Parker Porter. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Parisian at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Bill Algeo vs Spike Carlyle
The Featherweight matchup features Bill Algeo (5-4) taking on Spike Carlyle (1-1). Algeo is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Algeo at 914, Carlyle at 936. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Carlyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Carlyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Spike Carlyle over Bill Algeo. The model gives Carlyle a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Norma Dumont vs Ashlee Evans-Smith
The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Norma Dumont (8-2) taking on Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-5).
Dumont is rated at 1546 — 788 points above Evans-Smith's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.
Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Evans-Smith throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dumont is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Evans-Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Norma Dumont over Ashlee Evans-Smith. The model gives Dumont a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Jonathan Pearce vs Kai Kamaka
The Featherweight matchup features Jonathan Pearce (5-3) taking on Kai Kamaka (1-2). Pearce is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Pearce is rated at 996 — 181 points above Kamaka's 815. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kamaka throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kamaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Kamaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kai Kamaka over Jonathan Pearce. The model gives Kamaka a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Anderson Dos Santos vs Martin Day
The Bantamweight matchup features Anderson Dos Santos (1-2) taking on Martin Day (0-3). Day is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Santos is rated at 877 — 187 points above Day's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Day throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Day has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Martin Day over Anderson Dos Santos. The model gives Day a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Gina Mazany vs Rachael Ostovich
The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gina Mazany (2-5) taking on Rachael Ostovich (1-2). Mazany is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mazany at 696, Ostovich at 724. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Mazany throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ostovich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Ostovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gina Mazany over Rachael Ostovich. The model gives Mazany a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Sumudaerji vs Malcolm Gordon
The Flyweight matchup features Sumudaerji (4-4) taking on Malcolm Gordon (2-4).
Sumudaerji is rated at 1054 — 304 points above Gordon's 749. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Sumudaerji is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gordon looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gordon the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sumudaerji throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sumudaerji is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sumudaerji over Malcolm Gordon. We're leaning Sumudaerji here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Nate Maness vs Luke Sanders
The Catch Weight matchup features Nate Maness (4-2) taking on Luke Sanders (3-4). Maness is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Maness is rated at 1176 — 285 points above Sanders's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Maness's knockout artist game against Sanders's all-rounder approach. Maness is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sanders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sanders throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Maness is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Sanders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Maness over Luke Sanders. The model gives Maness a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.