UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Paul Felder (9-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Felder.

There's a real Elo separation here: Felder at 1363 versus Anjos at 1282. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Paul Felder. The model gives Anjos a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Khaos Williams (6-3) taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6). Williams is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Williams is rated at 1159 — 185 points above Alhassan's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 18.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Alhassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khaos Williams over Abdul Razak Alhassan. We're leaning Williams here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Ashley Yoder (3-7) taking on Miranda Granger (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yoder at 766, Granger at 756. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Granger throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Granger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Granger over Ashley Yoder. The model gives Granger a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Catch Weight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Brendan Allen (13-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Strickland at 1813 versus Allen at 1696. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Strickland's knockout artist game against Allen's wrestler approach. Strickland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Sean Strickland. The model gives Allen a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Strickland, but our model sees only 42%. That 7-point gap favoring Allen is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Cory McKenna (3-2) taking on Kay Hansen (1-2). Hansen will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

McKenna carries a modest Elo edge (929 to 850), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hansen throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hansen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. McKenna has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kay Hansen over Cory McKenna. The model gives Hansen a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Kanako Murata (1-1) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Markos.

There's a real Elo separation here: Markos at 974 versus Murata at 889. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Murata has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kanako Murata over Randa Markos. The model gives Murata a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Murata, but our model sees only 58%. That 5-point gap favoring Markos is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tony Gravely (4-3) taking on Geraldo de Freitas (1-1). Freitas is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gravely at 1012 versus Freitas at 923. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Freitas throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gravely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Freitas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Geraldo de Freitas over Tony Gravely. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Freitas at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Morono (13-9) taking on Rhys McKee (1-4). McKee is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morono at 868, McKee at 853. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Morono's all-rounder game against McKee's striker approach. Morono is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McKee brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morono throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McKee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rhys McKee over Alex Morono. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKee at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Morono, but our model sees only 48%. That 14-point gap favoring McKee is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Don'Tale Mayes (4-6) taking on Roque Martinez (0-2). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mayes at 849 versus Martinez at 742. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mayes throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes over Roque Martinez. We're leaning Mayes here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.