UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight championship matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Irene Aldana (8-5).

Aldana is rated at 1331 — 204 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Holm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Irene Aldana over Holly Holm.** The model gives Aldana a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Carlos Felipe (3-1) taking on Yorgan De Castro (1-2).

Felipe is rated at 1057 — 252 points above Castro's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Felipe rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felipe throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Castro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Castro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carlos Felipe over Yorgan De Castro.** The model gives Felipe a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Germaine de Randamie (7-2) taking on Julianna Pena (8-3). Randamie is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Randamie at 1341, Pena at 1323. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Randamie is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pena looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pena the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Randamie throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Randamie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julianna Pena over Germaine de Randamie.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pena at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyler Phillips (6-2) taking on Cameron Else (0-1).

Phillips is rated at 1238 — 493 points above Else's 745. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Else has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Cameron Else.** The model is firm on this one: Phillips at 78%.

The Middleweight matchup features Dusko Todorovic (3-6) taking on Dequan Townsend (0-3). Townsend is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Todorovic is rated at 871 — 165 points above Townsend's 706. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Townsend throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Townsend is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Todorovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dusko Todorovic over Dequan Townsend.** The model gives Todorovic a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Condit (9-9) taking on Court McGee (11-12). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Condit.

There's a real Elo separation here: Condit at 1165 versus McGee at 1037. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Condit's knockout artist game against McGee's all-rounder approach. Condit is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while McGee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Court McGee over Carlos Condit.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McGee at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Josh Culibao (3-3-1). Culibao will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 382 points above Culibao's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jourdain looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Culibao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jourdain the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Culibao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Jourdain over Josh Culibao.** The model gives Jourdain a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Jordan Williams (0-2).

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 1109 points above Williams's 768. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Jordan Williams.** The model gives Imavov a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loma Lookboonmee (7-2) taking on Jinh Yu Frey (2-5). Frey is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Lookboonmee is rated at 1089 — 359 points above Frey's 730. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lookboonmee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lookboonmee throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lookboonmee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Lookboonmee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Loma Lookboonmee over Jinh Yu Frey.** The model is firm on this one: Lookboonmee at 79%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Casey Kenney (5-2) taking on Alatengheili (5-2-1). Kenney is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kenney at 1234 versus Alatengheili at 1129. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Kenney's all-rounder game against Alatengheili's striker approach. Kenney is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alatengheili brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenney throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Alatengheili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Kenney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Casey Kenney over Alatengheili.** The model gives Kenney a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Luigi Vendramini (1-2) taking on Jessin Ayari (1-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Ayari.

Vendramini carries a modest Elo edge (864 to 815), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ayari throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ayari is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ayari has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luigi Vendramini over Jessin Ayari.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vendramini at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.