UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
Saturday, September 26, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✓
Israel Adesanya won by KO/TKO (R2)
Adesanya 68%32% Costa
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+5.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +321(favors Adesanya)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Costa)
Light Heavyweight✗
Jan Blachowicz won by KO/TKO (R2)
Blachowicz 27%73% Reyes
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (-3.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +134(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Blachowicz)
Flyweight✗
Brandon Royval won by Submission (R2)
Royval 32%68% Kara-France
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-2.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -24(favors Kara-France)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Kara-France)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Royval)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Ketlen Vieira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vieira 60%40% Eubanks
LEANMarket: 65% (-4.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -19(favors Eubanks)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Eubanks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Eubanks)
Featherweight✓
Hakeem Dawodu won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dawodu 50%50% Tukhugov
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+5.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Tukhugov)
Lightweight✓
Brad Riddell won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Riddell 52%48% Silva
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +175(favors Riddell)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Riddell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Silva)
Welterweight✓
Jake Matthews won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Matthews 86%14% Sanchez
STRONGMarket: 85% (+0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Sanchez)
Featherweight✗
Ludovit Klein won by KO/TKO (R1)
Klein 36%64% Young
LEANMarket: 53% (-17.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Young)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.1(favors Young)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Young)
Light Heavyweight✗
William Knight won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Knight 40%60% Camur
LEANMarket: 40% (-0.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -87(favors Camur)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Camur)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Camur)
Heavyweight✓
Juan Espino won by Submission (R1)
Espino 57%43% Hughes
LEANMarket: 73% (-16.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +258(favors Espino)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Espino)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.3(favors Espino)
Light Heavyweight✗
Danilo Marques won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Marques 37%63% Ibragimov
LEANMarket: 38% (-0.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +224(favors Marques)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Ibragimov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Ibragimov)