UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Paulo Costa (6-4). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya carries a modest Elo edge (1559 to 1513), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Adesanya is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Costa brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Adesanya the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Costa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Paulo Costa.** We're leaning Adesanya here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Adesanya at 63% implied while our model sees 68% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-1) taking on Dominick Reyes (9-4).

Blachowicz carries a modest Elo edge (1578 to 1529), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Reyes has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dominick Reyes over Jan Blachowicz.** We're leaning Reyes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 30% for Blachowicz, but our model sees only 27%. That 3-point gap favoring Reyes is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Royval (7-4) taking on Kai Kara-France (8-4). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Royval.

Kara-France carries a modest Elo edge (1351 to 1314), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Royval is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Kara-France brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Royval the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Royval is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kai Kara-France over Brandon Royval.** We're leaning Kara-France here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ketlen Vieira (9-4) taking on Sijara Eubanks (5-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Vieira.

Vieira is rated at 1294 — 320 points above Eubanks's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Eubanks is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Vieira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eubanks throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ketlen Vieira over Sijara Eubanks.** The model gives Vieira a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Vieira, but our model sees only 60%. That 5-point gap favoring Eubanks is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Hakeem Dawodu (6-3) taking on Zubaira Tukhugov (5-2-1). Dawodu will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tukhugov carries a modest Elo edge (1132 to 1090), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawodu throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tukhugov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Tukhugov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Zubaira Tukhugov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dawodu at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Dawodu at 44% implied while our model sees 50% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Brad Riddell (4-2) taking on Alex Da Silva (1-2).

Riddell is rated at 1088 — 158 points above Silva's 930. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddell throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Riddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Riddell over Alex Da Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Riddell at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Diego Sanchez (19-12).

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 156 points above Sanchez's 1139. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Matthews's all-rounder game against Sanchez's striker approach. Matthews is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sanchez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over Diego Sanchez.** The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (7-3-1) taking on Shane Young (2-4).

Klein is rated at 1364 — 622 points above Young's 742. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Young throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Young is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Young over Ludovit Klein.** The model gives Young a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 53% for Klein, but our model sees only 36%. That 17-point gap favoring Young is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features William Knight (3-3) taking on Aleksa Camur (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Camur.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Knight at 838, Camur at 811. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camur throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Camur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Knight has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aleksa Camur over William Knight.** The model gives Camur a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Juan Espino (2-0) taking on Jeff Hughes (0-2). Espino will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Espino is rated at 1097 — 285 points above Hughes's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Espino throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Espino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.3 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Juan Espino over Jeff Hughes.** The model gives Espino a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 73% for Espino, but our model sees only 57%. That 16-point gap favoring Hughes is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Danilo Marques (2-1) taking on Khadis Ibragimov (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Marques.

There's a real Elo separation here: Marques at 866 versus Ibragimov at 740. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ibragimov throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ibragimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Marques has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khadis Ibragimov over Danilo Marques.** The model gives Ibragimov a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.