UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Saturday, August 8, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lewis 72%28% Oleinik
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+7.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +241(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Oleinik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Oleinik)
Middleweight✓
Chris Weidman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Weidman 58%42% Akhmedov
LEANMarket: 58% (-0.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Akhmedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Weidman)
Middleweight✓
Darren Stewart won by Submission (R1)
Stewart 56%44% Pitolo
LEANMarket: 63% (-7.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +160(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Pitolo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Pitolo)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Yana Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 59%41% Stoliarenko
LEANMarket: 60% (-0.8% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +108(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Santos)
Lightweight✓
Beneil Dariush won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dariush 69%31% Holtzman
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+1.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Dariush)
Welterweight✗
Tim Means won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Means 43%57% Staropoli
LEANMarket: 41% (+1.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Staropoli)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Means)
Middleweight✓
Kevin Holland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Holland 87%13% Buckley
STRONGMarket: 80% (+7.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Holland)
Lightweight✓
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Haqparast 75%25% Munoz
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +105(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Haqparast)
Middleweight✗
Andrew Sanchez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sanchez 44%56% Turman
LEANMarket: 46% (-1.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -54(favors Turman)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Turman)
Featherweight✗
Gavin Tucker won by Submission (R3)
Tucker 33%67% Jaynes
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (-19.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -70(favors Jaynes)
→Striking volume advantage: -20.8(favors Jaynes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Tucker)
Featherweight✓
Youssef Zalal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zalal 89%11% Barrett
STRONGMarket: 82% (+7.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +157(favors Zalal)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Zalal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Zalal)
Bantamweight✓
Irwin Rivera won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rivera 51%49% AlQaisi
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -56(favors AlQaisi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors AlQaisi)