UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Aleksei Oleinik (9-7).

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 293 points above Oleinik's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lewis's striker game against Oleinik's wrestler approach. Lewis brings a versatile approach, while Oleinik looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleinik throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Oleinik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Aleksei Oleinik.** We're leaning Lewis here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 65% implied while our model sees 72% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1). Weidman is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 243 points above Weidman's 1060. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Weidman's wrestler game against Akhmedov's striker approach. Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Akhmedov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akhmedov throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Akhmedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Weidman over Omari Akhmedov.** The model gives Weidman a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Darren Stewart (5-6) taking on Maki Pitolo (1-4).

Stewart is rated at 940 — 244 points above Pitolo's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stewart's striker game against Pitolo's all-rounder approach. Stewart brings a versatile approach, while Pitolo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pitolo throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pitolo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Stewart has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Stewart over Maki Pitolo.** The model gives Stewart a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Stewart, but our model sees only 56%. That 7-point gap favoring Pitolo is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Yana Santos (6-5) taking on Julija Stoliarenko (2-6).

Santos is rated at 1304 — 461 points above Stoliarenko's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Stoliarenko's wrestler approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Stoliarenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Stoliarenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yana Santos over Julija Stoliarenko.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Scott Holtzman (7-5). Dariush will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 449 points above Holtzman's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holtzman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Scott Holtzman.** We're leaning Dariush here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Laureano Staropoli (2-3). Means will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Means carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 801), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Staropoli's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Staropoli brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Staropoli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Laureano Staropoli over Tim Means.** The model gives Staropoli a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Joaquin Buckley (11-4). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 471 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley has won 6 straight.

The style clash matters here: Holland looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Buckley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Holland the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Joaquin Buckley.** The model is firm on this one: Holland at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 80% implied while our model sees 87% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Alexander Munoz (0-2).

Haqparast is rated at 1235 — 234 points above Munoz's 1001. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Haqparast is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Munoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over Alexander Munoz.** We're leaning Haqparast here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Andrew Sanchez (5-4) taking on Wellington Turman (3-5).

Sanchez carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 866), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's striker game against Turman's all-rounder approach. Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Turman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Turman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Sanchez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wellington Turman over Andrew Sanchez.** The model gives Turman a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Gavin Tucker (4-2) taking on Justin Jaynes (1-3).

Tucker is rated at 1018 — 250 points above Jaynes's 768. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jaynes throws significantly more leather — a 20.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tucker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Jaynes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Jaynes over Gavin Tucker.** We're leaning Jaynes here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 53% for Tucker, but our model sees only 33%. That 20-point gap favoring Jaynes is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Peter Barrett (0-1).

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 679 points above Barrett's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zalal throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Barrett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Peter Barrett.** The model is firm on this one: Zalal at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Zalal at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Irwin Rivera (1-1) taking on Ali AlQaisi (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rivera at 972 versus AlQaisi at 835. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. AlQaisi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. AlQaisi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Irwin Rivera over Ali AlQaisi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rivera at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.