UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Saturday, July 25, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 13/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✓
Robert Whittaker won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Whittaker 56%44% Till
LEANMarket: 55% (+1.5% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +239(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Till)
Light Heavyweight✓
Mauricio Rua won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rua 74%26% Nogueira
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+10.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +129(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Rua)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Rua)
Heavyweight✗
Fabricio Werdum won by Submission (R1)
Werdum 36%64% Gustafsson
LEANMarket: 25% (+11.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Werdum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Werdum)
Women's Strawweight✓
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Split (R3)
Esparza 65%35% Rodriguez
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +124(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Esparza)
Light Heavyweight✓
Paul Craig won by Submission (R1)
Craig 72%28% Antigulov
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+16.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +71(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Antigulov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.9(favors Antigulov)
Welterweight✓
Alex Oliveira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oliveira 59%41% Sobotta
LEANMarket: 60% (-1.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Sobotta)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Sobotta)
Welterweight✓
Khamzat Chimaev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Chimaev 87%13% McKee
STRONGMarket: 90% (-3.6% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Chimaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.9(favors Chimaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Chimaev)
Lightweight✓
Francisco Trinaldo won by KO/TKO (R3)
Trinaldo 52%48% Herbert
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-4.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +408(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Trinaldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Trinaldo)
Welterweight
Dalby 67%33% Ronson
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +598(favors Dalby)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Ronson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Dalby)
Heavyweight✓
Tom Aspinall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aspinall 74%26% Collier
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+6.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Collier)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Collier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Collier)
Featherweight✓
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Evloev 69%31% Grundy
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+5.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +9(favors Evloev)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Evloev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Evloev)
Heavyweight✓
Tanner Boser won by KO/TKO (R2)
Boser 66%34% Pessoa
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +116(favors Boser)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Boser)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pessoa)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Pannie Kianzad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kianzad 74%26% Correia
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+14.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -53(favors Correia)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Correia)
Welterweight✓
Ramazan Emeev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Emeev 88%12% Stolze
STRONGMarket: 78% (+9.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +250(favors Emeev)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Emeev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Emeev)
Bantamweight✓
Nathaniel Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 85%15% Castaneda
STRONGMarket: 79% (+5.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +164(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Wood)