UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Darren Till (6-4-1).

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 232 points above Till's 1296. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Till is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Darren Till.** The model gives Whittaker a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Rogerio Nogueira (6-6).

Nogueira is rated at 1142 — 266 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rua's striker game against Nogueira's all-rounder approach. Rua brings a versatile approach, while Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Rua has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Rogerio Nogueira.** We're leaning Rua here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rua at 63% implied while our model sees 74% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (10-7).

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 325 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Werdum looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Werdum the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Gustafsson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Fabricio Werdum.** The model gives Gustafsson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Werdum at 25% implied while our model sees 36% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Esparza is rated at 1274 — 215 points above Rodriguez's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Esparza's wrestler game against Rodriguez's knockout artist approach. Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rodriguez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carla Esparza over Marina Rodriguez.** We're leaning Esparza here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2-3). Craig is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Craig is rated at 1045 — 270 points above Antigulov's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Antigulov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Craig the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Antigulov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Antigulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Craig over Gadzhimurad Antigulov.** We're leaning Craig here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Craig at 55% implied while our model sees 72% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on Peter Sobotta (4-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sobotta at 1083 versus Oliveira at 934. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sobotta is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sobotta the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobotta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Sobotta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Peter Sobotta.** The model gives Oliveira a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on Rhys McKee (1-4). McKee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Chimaev is rated at 1987 — 1134 points above McKee's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Chimaev's submission artist game against McKee's striker approach. Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while McKee brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chimaev throws significantly more leather — a 6.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. McKee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev over Rhys McKee.** The model is firm on this one: Chimaev at 87%. The market implies 90% for Chimaev, but our model sees only 87%. That 4-point gap favoring McKee is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Jai Herbert (3-4-1). Herbert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 315 points above Herbert's 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Trinaldo's all-rounder game against Herbert's striker approach. Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Herbert brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trinaldo throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Herbert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Jai Herbert.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Trinaldo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 52%. That 4-point gap favoring Herbert is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Jesse Ronson (0-4). Dalby will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dalby is rated at 1283 — 598 points above Ronson's 685. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ronson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dalby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ronson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nicolas Dalby over Jesse Ronson.** We're leaning Dalby here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Jake Collier (5-8).

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 1123 points above Collier's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Aspinall's knockout artist game against Collier's all-rounder approach. Aspinall is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Collier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Aspinall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tom Aspinall over Jake Collier.** We're leaning Aspinall here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Aspinall at 68% implied while our model sees 74% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Mike Grundy (1-2).

Evloev is rated at 1715 — 818 points above Grundy's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Evloev throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Grundy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Mike Grundy.** We're leaning Evloev here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Evloev at 64% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tanner Boser (4-5) taking on Raphael Pessoa (1-1). Pessoa will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Boser at 984 versus Pessoa at 904. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boser throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pessoa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Boser has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tanner Boser over Raphael Pessoa.** We're leaning Boser here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 71% for Boser, but our model sees only 66%. That 5-point gap favoring Pessoa is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Pannie Kianzad (5-5) taking on Bethe Correia (5-5-1). Kianzad is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Kianzad carries a modest Elo edge (943 to 883), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Correia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Correia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Pannie Kianzad over Bethe Correia.** We're leaning Kianzad here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Kianzad at 59% implied while our model sees 74% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ramazan Emeev (5-2) taking on Niklas Stolze (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Stolze.

Emeev is rated at 1047 — 311 points above Stolze's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emeev throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Emeev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Stolze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ramazan Emeev over Niklas Stolze.** The model is firm on this one: Emeev at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Emeev at 78% implied while our model sees 88% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on John Castaneda (4-3).

Wood is rated at 1389 — 272 points above Castaneda's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Castaneda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over John Castaneda.** The model is firm on this one: Wood at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Wood at 79% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.