UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Saturday, July 19, 2025·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
Model Record: 7/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Max Holloway won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Holloway 64%36% Poirier
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +88(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Poirier)
Middleweight✗
Paulo Costa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Costa 38%62% Kopylov
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +23(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kopylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Kopylov)
Welterweight✗
Daniel Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 34%66% Holland
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Holland)
Featherweight✗
Patricio Freire won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Freire 20%80% Ige
STRONG
→Elo gap: -467(favors Ige)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Ige)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Freire)
Lightweight✗
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 32%68% Zellhuber
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -14(favors Zellhuber)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Zellhuber)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Johnson)
Bantamweight✗
Vinicius Oliveira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oliveira 39%61% Phillips
LEAN
→Elo gap: +48(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Phillips)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Phillips)
Middleweight✓
Brendan Allen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Allen 61%39% Vettori
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +8(favors Allen)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Vettori)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Allen)
Welterweight✗
Nikolay Veretennikov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Veretennikov 32%68% Prado
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -181(favors Prado)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Prado)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Prado)
Middleweight✓
Ateba Gautier won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gautier 68%32% Valentin
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +265(favors Gautier)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.8(favors Gautier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Valentin)
Welterweight✗
Islam Dulatov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dulatov 44%56% Fugitt
LEAN
→Elo gap: -50(favors Fugitt)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Fugitt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Fugitt)
Light Heavyweight✓
Jimmy Crute won by Submission (R1)
Crute 65%35% Prachnio
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +155(favors Crute)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Prachnio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Crute)
Heavyweight✓
Ryan Spann won by Submission (R1)
Spann 51%49% Brzeski
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +206(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Brzeski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Spann)
Middleweight✓
Brunno Ferreira won by Submission (R1)
Ferreira 60%40% McVey
LEAN
→Elo gap: +151(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Ferreira)
Women's Flyweight✓
Carli Judice won by KO/TKO (R3)
Judice 68%32% Caliari
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +148(favors Judice)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.7(favors Judice)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Caliari)