UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8). Poirier will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 216 points above Poirier's 1681. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holloway's all-rounder game against Poirier's knockout artist approach. Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier.** The model gives Holloway a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Paulo Costa (6-4) taking on Roman Kopylov (6-4). Kopylov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Costa is rated at 1513 — 237 points above Kopylov's 1277. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kopylov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kopylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa.** The model gives Kopylov a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 237 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Holland's knockout artist approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Holland is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez.** We're leaning Holland here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Patricio Freire (0-1) taking on Dan Ige (11-9). Ige will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ige at 1235 versus Freire at 1152. That 83-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ige throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Freire is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Ige over Patricio Freire.** The model is firm on this one: Ige at 80%.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Daniel Zellhuber (3-2). Zellhuber is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 163 points above Zellhuber's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Zellhuber's all-rounder approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Zellhuber is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zellhuber throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson.** We're leaning Zellhuber here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vinicius Oliveira (4-0) taking on Kyler Phillips (6-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Oliveira at 1333 versus Phillips at 1238. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Oliveira rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Vinicius Oliveira.** The model gives Phillips a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-7-1).

Allen is rated at 1696 — 417 points above Vettori's 1280. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Allen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brendan Allen over Marvin Vettori.** The model gives Allen a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Nikolay Veretennikov (1-3) taking on Francisco Prado (1-3). Veretennikov is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Veretennikov at 1054 versus Prado at 925. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prado throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Prado is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Prado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francisco Prado over Nikolay Veretennikov.** We're leaning Prado here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Ateba Gautier (3-0) taking on Robert Valentin (0-2). Gautier is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Gautier is rated at 1266 — 484 points above Valentin's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gautier rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gautier throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Valentin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gautier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ateba Gautier over Robert Valentin.** We're leaning Gautier here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Islam Dulatov (0-0) taking on Adam Fugitt (2-3).

Dulatov is rated at 1146 — 335 points above Fugitt's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fugitt throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Fugitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Dulatov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Adam Fugitt over Islam Dulatov.** The model gives Fugitt a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimmy Crute (5-4-2) taking on Marcin Prachnio (4-6).

Crute is rated at 1151 — 332 points above Prachnio's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Crute's wrestler game against Prachnio's striker approach. Crute looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Prachnio brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prachnio throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Crute is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Prachnio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jimmy Crute over Marcin Prachnio.** The model gives Crute a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Lukasz Brzeski (1-5).

Spann is rated at 1116 — 309 points above Brzeski's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Spann's wrestler game against Brzeski's striker approach. Spann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brzeski brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brzeski throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Brzeski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Spann over Lukasz Brzeski.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Spann at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Brunno Ferreira (5-2) taking on Jackson McVey (0-1). McVey is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ferreira is rated at 1344 — 510 points above McVey's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. McVey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brunno Ferreira over Jackson McVey.** The model gives Ferreira a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Carli Judice (2-1) taking on Nicolle Caliari (0-1). Judice is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Judice is rated at 1183 — 344 points above Caliari's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Judice throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Caliari is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Caliari has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carli Judice over Nicolle Caliari.** We're leaning Judice here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.