UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Alexander Volkov (12-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Volkov.

There's a real Elo separation here: Volkov at 1754 versus Blaydes at 1634. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkov throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Alexander Volkov.** The model is firm on this one: Blaydes at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Blaydes at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-5) taking on Shane Burgos (7-3). Burgos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Emmett at 1356, Burgos at 1365. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Burgos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Burgos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burgos throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Emmett over Shane Burgos.** The model gives Emmett a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Emmett at 37% implied while our model sees 58% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Marion Reneau (5-6-1).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 534 points above Reneau's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Pennington's all-rounder game against Reneau's knockout artist approach. Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Reneau is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reneau throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Marion Reneau.** The model is firm on this one: Pennington at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 69% implied while our model sees 83% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Lyman Good (3-2).

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 519 points above Good's 1228. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Muhammad's all-rounder game against Good's striker approach. Muhammad is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Good brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Good throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Good has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Lyman Good.** We're leaning Muhammad here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Muhammad at 52% implied while our model sees 67% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Roosevelt Roberts (4-4). Roberts is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 328 points above Roberts's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Jim Miller.** We're leaning Roberts here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (13-12-1) taking on Clay Guida (18-18). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Green.

Green is rated at 1176 — 250 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Guida the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: King Green over Clay Guida.** The model is firm on this one: Green at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Green at 71% implied while our model sees 75% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Brianna Fortino (1-0).

Pennington is rated at 1206 — 207 points above Fortino's 998. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fortino throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Fortino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Fortino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brianna Fortino over Tecia Pennington.** We're leaning Fortino here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9) taking on Oskar Piechota (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barriault at 954 versus Piechota at 831. That 124-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Barriault's all-rounder game against Piechota's knockout artist approach. Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Piechota is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Piechota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc-Andre Barriault over Oskar Piechota.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barriault at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Cortney Casey (6-8). Casey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 447 points above Casey's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Cortney Casey.** The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Robertson at 51% implied while our model sees 61% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Jaynes (1-3) taking on Frank Camacho (2-5). Camacho is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jaynes at 768, Camacho at 790. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camacho throws significantly more leather — a 8.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Camacho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jaynes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frank Camacho over Justin Jaynes.** We're leaning Camacho here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-6) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-7). Modafferi is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Murphy is rated at 1171 — 192 points above Modafferi's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Modafferi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lauren Murphy over Roxanne Modafferi.** The model gives Murphy a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Murphy at 53% implied while our model sees 64% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Austin Hubbard (4-7) taking on Max Rohskopf (0-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rohskopf.

Rohskopf carries a modest Elo edge (862 to 817), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hubbard throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hubbard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Rohskopf has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Rohskopf over Austin Hubbard.** The model gives Rohskopf a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hubbard at 37% implied while our model sees 42% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.