UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9). Eye is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Eye carries a modest Elo edge (950 to 911), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Calvillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Calvillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo over Jessica Eye.** The model gives Calvillo a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Calvillo at 56% implied while our model sees 64% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Karl Roberson (4-5).

Vettori is rated at 1280 — 462 points above Roberson's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Vettori is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Karl Roberson.** The model gives Vettori a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Rosa (5-7) taking on Kevin Aguilar (2-3). Aguilar will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aguilar carries a modest Elo edge (869 to 817), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Rosa's wrestler game against Aguilar's striker approach. Rosa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Aguilar brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilar throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Rosa over Kevin Aguilar.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rosa at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Rosa at 39% implied while our model sees 53% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Charles Jourdain (7-7-1). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 214 points above Fili's 1140. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fili is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jourdain looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jourdain the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andre Fili over Charles Jourdain.** The model gives Fili a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Fili, but our model sees only 62%. That 5-point gap favoring Jourdain is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jordan Espinosa (2-3) taking on Mark De La Rosa (2-4). Espinosa will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Espinosa at 864 versus Rosa at 736. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Espinosa's striker game against Rosa's all-rounder approach. Espinosa brings a versatile approach, while Rosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Espinosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Espinosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jordan Espinosa over Mark De La Rosa.** The model gives Espinosa a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mariya Agapova (2-3) taking on Hannah Cifers (2-4). Agapova is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Agapova at 837 versus Cifers at 690. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Agapova is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Cifers is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Cifers the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cifers throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cifers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Agapova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mariya Agapova over Hannah Cifers.** The model is firm on this one: Agapova at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Agapova at 75% implied while our model sees 81% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Gustavo Lopez (1-2).

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 878 points above Lopez's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Lopez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Gustavo Lopez.** The model is firm on this one: Dvalishvili at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Dvalishvili at 86% implied while our model sees 92% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julia Avila (3-2) taking on Gina Mazany (2-5).

Avila is rated at 933 — 238 points above Mazany's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Avila is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mazany looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mazany the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Avila throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazany is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Avila has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Julia Avila over Gina Mazany.** The model is firm on this one: Avila at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tyson Nam (3-4) taking on Zarrukh Adashev (1-2). Nam is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nam is rated at 988 — 180 points above Adashev's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nam throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Adashev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Adashev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyson Nam over Zarrukh Adashev.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nam at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Nam, but our model sees only 53%. That 3-point gap favoring Adashev is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Christian Aguilera (1-1) taking on Anthony Ivy (0-1). Ivy is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Aguilera at 915 versus Ivy at 823. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ivy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ivy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ivy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Ivy over Christian Aguilera.** We're leaning Ivy here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.