UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Featherweight championship matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Felicia Spencer (2-3).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 446 points above Spencer's 1190. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Felicia Spencer.** The model is firm on this one: Nunes at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 82% implied while our model sees 89% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Garbrandt.

Garbrandt carries a modest Elo edge (1155 to 1099), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Garbrandt's striker game against Assuncao's all-rounder approach. Garbrandt brings a versatile approach, while Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garbrandt throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raphael Assuncao over Cody Garbrandt.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Assuncao at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Garbrandt, but our model sees only 47%. That 11-point gap favoring Assuncao is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Cory Sandhagen (11-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Sandhagen.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sterling at 1683, Sandhagen at 1707. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Cory Sandhagen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sterling at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Sterling at 51% implied while our model sees 55% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Martin at 1419 versus Magny at 1270. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Martin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Neil Magny over Anthony Rocco Martin.** The model gives Magny a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Eddie Wineland (6-9). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

O'Malley is rated at 1748 — 882 points above Wineland's 865. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Malley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean O'Malley over Eddie Wineland.** The model is firm on this one: O'Malley at 90%. Notably, the betting market has O'Malley at 82% implied while our model sees 90% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Chase Hooper (8-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Hooper.

Caceres carries a modest Elo edge (1232 to 1175), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Hooper has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Caceres is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hooper the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Hooper has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chase Hooper over Alex Caceres.** The model is firm on this one: Hooper at 81%. The market implies 34% for Caceres, but our model sees only 19%. That 15-point gap favoring Hooper is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Ian Heinisch (3-3) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12). Meerschaert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Heinisch is rated at 1037 — 170 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Heinisch is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Heinisch throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Heinisch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ian Heinisch over Gerald Meerschaert.** The model gives Heinisch a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Heinisch at 56% implied while our model sees 64% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Cody Stamann (7-6-1) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-8).

Stamann is rated at 932 — 166 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stamann's striker game against Kelleher's all-rounder approach. Stamann brings a versatile approach, while Kelleher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Stamann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Stamann over Brian Kelleher.** We're leaning Stamann here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Maki Pitolo (1-4) taking on Charles Byrd (1-2).

Byrd carries a modest Elo edge (741 to 696), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Byrd throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Byrd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Byrd has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Byrd over Maki Pitolo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Byrd at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pitolo at 37% implied while our model sees 50% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Alex Perez (7-6) taking on Jussier Formiga (9-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Perez at 1293 versus Formiga at 1149. That 144-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Perez over Jussier Formiga.** The model gives Perez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Perez at 56% implied while our model sees 64% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Devin Clark (8-8) taking on Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1).

Menifield is rated at 1207 — 263 points above Clark's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Clark's striker game against Menifield's all-rounder approach. Clark brings a versatile approach, while Menifield is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Clark has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Devin Clark.** The model gives Menifield a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Clark at 31% implied while our model sees 39% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Herbert Burns (2-3) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1). Burns will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dunham is rated at 1019 — 249 points above Burns's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Dunham is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Dunham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Herbert Burns over Evan Dunham.** The model is firm on this one: Burns at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Burns at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.