UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns
Saturday, May 30, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Burns 59%41% Woodley
LEANMarket: 37% (+22.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -152(favors Woodley)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Burns)
HeavyweightHIT
Augusto Sakai won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sakai 61%39% Ivanov
LEANMarket: 53% (+7.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +30(favors Sakai)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Ivanov)
Catch WeightMISS
Billy Quarantillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quarantillo 48%52% Carlyle
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -17(favors Carlyle)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Carlyle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Quarantillo)
LightweightHIT
Roosevelt Roberts won by Submission (R2)
Roberts 87%13% Weaver
STRONGMarket: 77% (+9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +182(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Roberts)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Mackenzie Dern won by Submission (R1)
Dern 88%12% Cifers
STRONGMarket: 81% (+7.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +157(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Cifers)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Dern)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 66%34% Shevchenko
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +127(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Shevchenko)
WelterweightHIT
Daniel Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 57%43% Green
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +154(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Green)
Light Heavyweight
Hill 67%33% Abreu
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +442(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Abreu)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Royval won by Submission (R2)
Royval 59%41% Elliott
LEANMarket: 43% (+15.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +37(favors Royval)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.3(favors Elliott)
BantamweightHIT
Casey Kenney won by Submission (R1)
Kenney 70%30% Smolka
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (-2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Kenney)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Kenney)
FeatherweightHIT
Chris Gutierrez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gutierrez 62%38% Morales
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +161(favors Gutierrez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Gutierrez)