UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Tyron Woodley (9-5-1). Woodley will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Woodley at 1461 versus Burns at 1379. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Burns looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Woodley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Tyron Woodley.** The model gives Burns a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Burns at 37% implied while our model sees 59% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Augusto Sakai (4-4) taking on Blagoy Ivanov (3-4). Sakai is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sakai at 1122, Ivanov at 1148. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Sakai's striker game against Ivanov's all-rounder approach. Sakai brings a versatile approach, while Ivanov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakai throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ivanov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ivanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Augusto Sakai over Blagoy Ivanov.** The model gives Sakai a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sakai at 53% implied while our model sees 61% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Billy Quarantillo (6-4) taking on Spike Carlyle (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Quarantillo at 965, Carlyle at 936. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carlyle throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Quarantillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Carlyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Spike Carlyle over Billy Quarantillo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carlyle at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Quarantillo, but our model sees only 48%. That 4-point gap favoring Carlyle is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Roosevelt Roberts (4-4) taking on Brok Weaver (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Roberts at 885, Weaver at 884. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Brok Weaver.** The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Roberts at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mackenzie Dern (10-5) taking on Hannah Cifers (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Dern.

Dern is rated at 1472 — 782 points above Cifers's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dern's wrestler game against Cifers's knockout artist approach. Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cifers is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cifers throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dern is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Hannah Cifers.** The model is firm on this one: Dern at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Dern at 81% implied while our model sees 88% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Antonina Shevchenko (3-4).

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 256 points above Shevchenko's 1027. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cerminara's striker game against Shevchenko's wrestler approach. Cerminara brings a versatile approach, while Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Antonina Shevchenko.** We're leaning Cerminara here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Daniel Rodriguez (9-4) taking on Gabe Green (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rodriguez.

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 412 points above Green's 1082. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Gabe Green.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jamahal Hill (6-3) taking on Klidson Abreu (1-2). Hill is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hill is rated at 1396 — 442 points above Abreu's 953. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Abreu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Klidson Abreu.** We're leaning Hill here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Royval (7-4) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11). Royval is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Royval carries a modest Elo edge (1314 to 1241), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Royval's knockout artist game against Elliott's wrestler approach. Royval is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Royval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Royval over Tim Elliott.** The model gives Royval a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Royval at 43% implied while our model sees 59% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Casey Kenney (5-2) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8).

Kenney is rated at 1234 — 360 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kenney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Kenney has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Casey Kenney over Louis Smolka.** We're leaning Kenney here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Vince Morales (3-7). Morales will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 446 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gutierrez's striker game against Morales's all-rounder approach. Gutierrez brings a versatile approach, while Morales is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gutierrez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Vince Morales.** The model gives Gutierrez a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.