UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris
Saturday, May 16, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA
Model Record: 11/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R2)
Overeem 62%38% Harris
LEANMarket: 42% (+19.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -67(favors Harris)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Harris)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Claudia Gadelha won by Decision - Split (R3)
Gadelha 74%26% Hill
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -9(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Gadelha)
FeatherweightHIT
Dan Ige won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ige 65%35% Barboza
LEANMarket: 45% (+20.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Ige)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Ige)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Ige)
MiddleweightHIT
Krzysztof Jotko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jotko 63%37% Anders
LEANMarket: 51% (+11.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +18(favors Jotko)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Jotko)
FeatherweightHIT
Song Yadong won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yadong 57%43% Vera
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -7(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Vera)
WelterweightHIT
Miguel Baeza won by KO/TKO (R2)
Baeza 61%39% Brown
LEANMarket: 58% (+3.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -242(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Baeza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Baeza)
MiddleweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by KO/TKO (R1)
Holland 70%30% Hernandez
CONFIDENTMarket: 49% (+20.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Hernandez)
FeatherweightHIT
Giga Chikadze won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chikadze 88%12% Rivera
STRONGMarket: 79% (+9.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +125(favors Chikadze)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Chikadze)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Chikadze)
FeatherweightHIT
Nate Landwehr won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Landwehr 64%36% Elkins
LEANMarket: 47% (+17.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -272(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Elkins)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Cortney Casey won by Submission (R1)
Casey 53%47% Borella
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-8.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +145(favors Casey)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Borella)
HeavyweightHIT
Rodrigo Nascimento won by Submission (R2)
Nascimento 55%45% Mayes
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +76(favors Nascimento)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Mayes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mayes)