UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Alistair Overeem (12-7) taking on Walt Harris (6-8). Overeem will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Overeem is rated at 1412 — 279 points above Harris's 1133. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Overeem is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Harris brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Overeem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Harris throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Harris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alistair Overeem over Walt Harris.** The model gives Overeem a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Overeem at 42% implied while our model sees 62% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Claudia Gadelha (7-4) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gadelha at 1187 versus Hill at 1074. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Angela Hill.** We're leaning Gadelha here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Gadelha at 69% implied while our model sees 74% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ige at 1235 versus Barboza at 1142. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ige's all-rounder game against Barboza's striker approach. Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barboza brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ige throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ige is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Ige over Edson Barboza.** The model gives Ige a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Ige at 45% implied while our model sees 65% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Eryk Anders (9-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jotko at 1222 versus Anders at 1106. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Eryk Anders.** The model gives Jotko a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jotko at 51% implied while our model sees 63% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-3-1) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9). Vera will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Yadong at 1548 versus Vera at 1460. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Yadong over Marlon Vera.** The model gives Yadong a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Miguel Baeza (3-3) taking on Matt Brown (16-13).

Brown is rated at 1201 — 350 points above Baeza's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Baeza's knockout artist game against Brown's all-rounder approach. Baeza is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baeza throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Baeza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Baeza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miguel Baeza over Matt Brown.** The model gives Baeza a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-11) taking on Anthony Hernandez (9-2). Holland is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 346 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez has won 8 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Holland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Anthony Hernandez.** We're leaning Holland here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 49% implied while our model sees 70% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Giga Chikadze (8-3) taking on Irwin Rivera (1-1). Chikadze is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Chikadze is rated at 1150 — 178 points above Rivera's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chikadze throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Chikadze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Giga Chikadze over Irwin Rivera.** The model is firm on this one: Chikadze at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Chikadze at 79% implied while our model sees 88% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Nate Landwehr (5-4) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Elkins at 1113 versus Landwehr at 979. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Landwehr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Landwehr over Darren Elkins.** The model gives Landwehr a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Landwehr at 47% implied while our model sees 64% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Cortney Casey (6-8) taking on Mara Romero Borella (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Casey at 904 versus Borella at 756. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Casey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Borella looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Borella the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Borella is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Borella has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cortney Casey over Mara Romero Borella.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Casey at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 62% for Casey, but our model sees only 53%. That 8-point gap favoring Borella is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Rodrigo Nascimento (4-2) taking on Don'Tale Mayes (4-6). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Mayes.

Nascimento is rated at 1092 — 243 points above Mayes's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nascimento's all-rounder game against Mayes's striker approach. Nascimento is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mayes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mayes throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Mayes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nascimento has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento over Don'Tale Mayes.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nascimento at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.