UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo
Saturday, February 29, 2020·Norfolk, Virginia, USA
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Flyweight✗
Deiveson Figueiredo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Figueiredo 48%52% Benavidez
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+6.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -204(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Benavidez)
Women's Featherweight✓
Felicia Spencer won by KO/TKO (R1)
Spencer 60%40% Fairn
LEAN
→Elo gap: +219(favors Spencer)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Spencer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Spencer)
Light Heavyweight✓
Magomed Ankalaev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ankalaev 66%34% Cutelaba
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-0.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -62(favors Cutelaba)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Cutelaba)
Women's Featherweight✓
Megan Anderson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Anderson 73%27% Dumont
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +110(favors Anderson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Anderson)
Featherweight✓
Grant Dawson won by Submission (R2)
Dawson 86%14% Minner
STRONGMarket: 81% (+4.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +185(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Dawson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Dawson)
Bantamweight✗
Kyler Phillips won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Phillips 49%51% Silva
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +52(favors Phillips)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Silva)
Middleweight✓
Brendan Allen won by KO/TKO (R1)
Allen 53%47% Breese
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+11.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Breese)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Breese)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Allen)
Heavyweight✗
Marcin Tybura won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tybura 41%59% Spivac
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -112(favors Spivac)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -8.2(favors Spivac)
Lightweight✓
Luis Pena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pena 74%26% Garcia
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Pena)
Featherweight✗
Jordan Griffin won by Submission (R2)
Griffin 50%50% Brown
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -114(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Griffin)
Featherweight✗
Spike Carlyle won by KO/TKO (R1)
Carlyle 46%54% Cruz
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Cruz)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Cruz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Cruz)
Welterweight✗
Sean Brady won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brady 43%57% Naurdiev
LEANMarket: 46% (-2.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Naurdiev)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Brady)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Brady)