UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Joseph Benavidez (15-5). Figueiredo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 199 points above Benavidez's 1291. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Figueiredo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Benavidez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Benavidez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Benavidez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Benavidez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Deiveson Figueiredo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Benavidez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Figueiredo at 41% implied while our model sees 48% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Felicia Spencer (2-3) taking on Zarah Fairn (0-3). Fairn is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Spencer is rated at 1190 — 417 points above Fairn's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Spencer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Fairn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felicia Spencer over Zarah Fairn. The model gives Spencer a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1).

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 626 points above Cutelaba's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Ankalaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Ion Cutelaba. We're leaning Ankalaev here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Megan Anderson (3-2) taking on Norma Dumont (8-2). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Dumont is rated at 1546 — 359 points above Anderson's 1187. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dumont has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Anderson's all-rounder game against Dumont's striker approach. Anderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dumont brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Dumont has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Megan Anderson over Norma Dumont. We're leaning Anderson here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Darrick Minner (2-3). Dawson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Dawson is rated at 1336 — 472 points above Minner's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Minner is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Dawson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawson throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Minner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Grant Dawson over Darrick Minner. The model is firm on this one: Dawson at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Dawson at 81% implied while our model sees 86% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyler Phillips (6-2) taking on Gabriel Silva (0-1).

Phillips is rated at 1238 — 362 points above Silva's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Silva over Kyler Phillips. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Tom Breese (5-2).

Allen is rated at 1696 — 555 points above Breese's 1141. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Breese is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Allen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breese throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Breese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Tom Breese. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Allen at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 41% implied while our model sees 53% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Serghei Spivac (8-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Spivac at 1355 versus Tybura at 1242. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Tybura is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Spivac is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Spivac the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Spivac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.2 more per 15 minutes. Spivac has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Serghei Spivac over Marcin Tybura. The model gives Spivac a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Luis Pena (4-3) taking on Steve Garcia (7-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Pena.

Garcia is rated at 1593 — 447 points above Pena's 1146. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Pena's wrestler game against Garcia's knockout artist approach. Pena looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pena throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luis Pena over Steve Garcia. We're leaning Pena here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Jordan Griffin (1-3) taking on TJ Brown (3-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Griffin at 884, Brown at 876. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Brown over Jordan Griffin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Spike Carlyle (1-1) taking on Aalon Cruz (0-1). Cruz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Carlyle at 936 versus Cruz at 790. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aalon Cruz over Spike Carlyle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cruz at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Carlyle at 37% implied while our model sees 46% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Brady (8-1) taking on Ismail Naurdiev (3-3).

Brady is rated at 1658 — 475 points above Naurdiev's 1183. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brady rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Brady's wrestler game against Naurdiev's striker approach. Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Naurdiev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brady throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Naurdiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ismail Naurdiev over Sean Brady. The model gives Naurdiev a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.