UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-7). Blaydes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 443 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blaydes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.6 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Junior Dos Santos. The model gives Blaydes a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 208 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiesa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Michael Chiesa. The model gives Anjos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Alex Perez (7-6) taking on Jordan Espinosa (2-3). Espinosa will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez is rated at 1293 — 429 points above Espinosa's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perez's wrestler game against Espinosa's striker approach. Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Espinosa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Espinosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Perez over Jordan Espinosa. We're leaning Perez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Hannah Cifers (2-4). Hill is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hill is rated at 1074 — 384 points above Cifers's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hill's all-rounder game against Cifers's knockout artist approach. Hill is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cifers is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Angela Hill over Hannah Cifers. The model gives Hill a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jamahal Hill (6-3) taking on Darko Stosic (1-2). Hill is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Hill is rated at 1396 — 577 points above Stosic's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stosic throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stosic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Darko Stosic. The model gives Hill a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hill at 55% implied while our model sees 58% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Bevon Lewis (1-2) taking on Dequan Townsend (0-3).

Lewis is rated at 901 — 194 points above Townsend's 706. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Townsend is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bevon Lewis over Dequan Townsend. The model is firm on this one: Lewis at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Lewis at 78% implied while our model sees 84% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1).

Allen is rated at 1468 — 309 points above Lentz's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lentz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lentz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Arnold Allen over Nik Lentz. The model is firm on this one: Allen at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 69% implied while our model sees 77% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Justine Kish (3-3) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-7). Pudilova is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kish at 900 versus Pudilova at 803. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kish throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kish is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucie Pudilova over Justine Kish. The model gives Pudilova a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Kish at 39% implied while our model sees 45% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Montel Jackson (9-2) taking on Felipe Colares (2-3). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Jackson is rated at 1448 — 574 points above Colares's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jackson rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jackson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Colares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Colares the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Colares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montel Jackson over Felipe Colares. The model is firm on this one: Jackson at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sara McMann (6-6) taking on Lina Lansberg (4-6).

McMann is rated at 1158 — 287 points above Lansberg's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lansberg throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Lansberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sara McMann over Lina Lansberg. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McMann at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brett Johns (4-2) taking on Tony Gravely (4-3). Johns is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Johns is rated at 1295 — 284 points above Gravely's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johns's wrestler game against Gravely's striker approach. Johns looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gravely brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johns throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Gravely has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brett Johns over Tony Gravely. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johns at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Herbert Burns (2-3) taking on Nate Landwehr (5-4).

Landwehr is rated at 979 — 209 points above Burns's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Landwehr is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Landwehr is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Landwehr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Landwehr over Herbert Burns. The model gives Landwehr a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Burns, but our model sees only 40%. That 8-point gap favoring Landwehr is worth watching.