UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
Saturday, January 18, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R1)
McGregor 69%31% Cerrone
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-3.0% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +208(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cerrone)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Holly Holm won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holm 45%55% Pennington
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-12.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -68(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Pennington)
HeavyweightHIT
Aleksei Oleinik won by Submission (R2)
Oleinik 60%40% Greene
LEANMarket: 49% (+11.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Greene)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Oleinik)
BantamweightMISS
Brian Kelleher won by Submission (R1)
Kelleher 43%57% Osbourne
LEANMarket: 42% (+1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.1(favors Kelleher)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Kelleher)
LightweightHIT
Diego Ferreira won by Submission (R2)
Ferreira 67%33% Pettis
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +22(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Ferreira)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Roxanne Modafferi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Modafferi 35%65% Barber
LEANMarket: 12% (+23.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -414(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Barber)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Modafferi)
FeatherweightHIT
Sodiq Yusuff won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yusuff 56%44% Fili
LEANMarket: 56% (-0.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Yusuff)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Yusuff)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Fili)
FlyweightHIT
Askar Askarov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Askarov 56%44% Elliott
LEANMarket: 57% (-0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -48(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Elliott)
LightweightMISS
Drew Dober won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dober 25%75% Haqparast
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (-0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -37(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Dober)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Dober)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Aleksa Camur won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Camur 48%52% Ledet
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -8(favors Ledet)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Ledet)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ledet)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sabina Mazo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Mazo 76%24% Aldrich
STRONG
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Mazo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Mazo)