UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Cerrone.

McGregor is rated at 1573 — 519 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: McGregor brings a versatile approach, while Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Cerrone the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Conor McGregor over Donald Cerrone.** We're leaning McGregor here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 72% for McGregor, but our model sees only 69%. That 3-point gap favoring Cerrone is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Raquel Pennington (13-5).

Pennington is rated at 1411 — 284 points above Holm's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pennington has won 6 straight.

The style clash matters here: Holm is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pennington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pennington the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Holly Holm.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pennington at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Holm, but our model sees only 45%. That 13-point gap favoring Pennington is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Aleksei Oleinik (9-7) taking on Maurice Greene (4-3). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Greene.

Oleinik is rated at 1073 — 167 points above Greene's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oleinik looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Greene is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oleinik the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Greene throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Greene has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aleksei Oleinik over Maurice Greene.** The model gives Oleinik a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Oleinik at 49% implied while our model sees 60% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brian Kelleher (8-8) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-7). Osbourne will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Osbourne at 846 versus Kelleher at 766. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelleher throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Osbourne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ode Osbourne over Brian Kelleher.** The model gives Osbourne a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Anthony Pettis (10-9).

Pettis is rated at 1512 — 299 points above Ferreira's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's all-rounder game against Pettis's knockout artist approach. Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pettis is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Ferreira over Anthony Pettis.** We're leaning Ferreira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Roxanne Modafferi (4-7) taking on Maycee Barber (9-2). Modafferi is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Barber is rated at 1543 — 565 points above Modafferi's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber has won 6 straight.

Stylistically this is Modafferi's all-rounder game against Barber's striker approach. Modafferi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Barber brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barber throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Modafferi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Modafferi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maycee Barber over Roxanne Modafferi.** The model gives Barber a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Modafferi at 12% implied while our model sees 35% — a 23-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sodiq Yusuff (6-3) taking on Andre Fili (12-11). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yusuff at 1113, Fili at 1140. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yusuff throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Yusuff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sodiq Yusuff over Andre Fili.** The model gives Yusuff a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Askar Askarov (3-0-1) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11).

Askarov carries a modest Elo edge (1285 to 1241), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Askarov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Askarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Askar Askarov over Tim Elliott.** The model gives Askarov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Nasrat Haqparast (10-4). Haqparast is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Haqparast is rated at 1235 — 152 points above Dober's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Haqparast has won 5 straight.

Stylistically this is Dober's all-rounder game against Haqparast's striker approach. Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Haqparast brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over Drew Dober.** We're leaning Haqparast here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Aleksa Camur (1-2) taking on Justin Ledet (3-3). Ledet is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Camur carries a modest Elo edge (811 to 756), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ledet throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ledet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Camur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Justin Ledet over Aleksa Camur.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ledet at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Camur, but our model sees only 48%. That 6-point gap favoring Ledet is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Sabina Mazo (3-3) taking on JJ Aldrich (9-6). Mazo is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 275 points above Mazo's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mazo's all-rounder game against Aldrich's striker approach. Mazo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aldrich brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mazo throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Mazo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Mazo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sabina Mazo over JJ Aldrich.** The model is firm on this one: Mazo at 76%.