UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
Saturday, December 7, 2019·Washington, DC, USA
Model Record: 8/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by KO/TKO (R5)
Rozenstruik 56%44% Overeem
LEANMarket: 53% (+2.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -243(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Rozenstruik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Overeem)
Women's Strawweight
Rodriguez 50%50% Calvillo
TOSS-UP
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Calvillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Calvillo)
Heavyweight✗
Ben Rothwell won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rothwell 49%51% Struve
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-8.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Rothwell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Struve)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Aspen Ladd won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ladd 61%39% Santos
LEANMarket: 65% (-3.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Ladd)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Santos)
Bantamweight
Stamann 41%59% Yadong
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Yadong)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Stamann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Stamann)
Bantamweight✗
Rob Font won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Font 42%58% Simon
LEANMarket: 58% (-15.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +219(favors Font)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Font)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Simon)
Welterweight✓
Tim Means won by Submission (R1)
Means 75%25% Alves
STRONGMarket: 71% (+4.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Means)
Featherweight✓
Billy Quarantillo won by Submission (R2)
Quarantillo 67%33% Kilburn
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-6.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Kilburn)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Kilburn)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kilburn)
Featherweight✓
Bryce Mitchell won by Submission (R1)
Mitchell 67%33% Sayles
CONFIDENTMarket: 46% (+20.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +122(favors Mitchell)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Sayles)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Mitchell)
Lightweight✓
Joe Solecki won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Solecki 86%14% Wiman
STRONGMarket: 77% (+8.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -103(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Wiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Wiman)
Women's Strawweight✓
Virna Jandiroba won by Submission (R2)
Jandiroba 67%33% Martin
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -67(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Jandiroba)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Jandiroba)
Middleweight✓
Makhmud Muradov won by KO/TKO (R3)
Muradov 86%14% Smith
STRONGMarket: 80% (+5.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +51(favors Muradov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Muradov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Smith)