UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5) taking on Alistair Overeem (12-7). Overeem is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rozenstruik at 1385, Overeem at 1412. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Rozenstruik brings a versatile approach, while Overeem is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Overeem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rozenstruik throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Overeem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Alistair Overeem.** The model gives Rozenstruik a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2) taking on Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1059 versus Calvillo at 911. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's knockout artist game against Calvillo's wrestler approach. Rodriguez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Calvillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Calvillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Cynthia Calvillo.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ben Rothwell (9-7) taking on Stefan Struve (13-10). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Rothwell is rated at 1080 — 201 points above Struve's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rothwell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stefan Struve over Ben Rothwell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Struve at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Rothwell, but our model sees only 49%. That 8-point gap favoring Struve is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Aspen Ladd (4-2) taking on Yana Santos (6-5).

Santos is rated at 1304 — 180 points above Ladd's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ladd's wrestler game against Santos's striker approach. Ladd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Santos brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ladd throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aspen Ladd over Yana Santos.** The model gives Ladd a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Ladd, but our model sees only 61%. That 3-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Stamann (7-6-1) taking on Song Yadong (11-3-1). Yadong is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Yadong is rated at 1548 — 616 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Stamann's striker game against Yadong's all-rounder approach. Stamann brings a versatile approach, while Yadong is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Yadong over Cody Stamann.** The model gives Yadong a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-7) taking on Ricky Simon (10-5). Font is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Font at 1361 versus Simon at 1223. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Simon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricky Simon over Rob Font.** The model gives Simon a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 58% for Font, but our model sees only 42%. That 15-point gap favoring Simon is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Means at 872, Alves at 901. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Means over Thiago Alves.** The model is firm on this one: Means at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Means at 71% implied while our model sees 75% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Billy Quarantillo (6-4) taking on Jacob Kilburn (0-1).

Quarantillo is rated at 965 — 155 points above Kilburn's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kilburn throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kilburn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kilburn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Billy Quarantillo over Jacob Kilburn.** We're leaning Quarantillo here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Quarantillo, but our model sees only 67%. That 6-point gap favoring Kilburn is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (8-3) taking on Matt Sayles (1-2). Mitchell is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Mitchell is rated at 1355 — 487 points above Sayles's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sayles throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Sayles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Matt Sayles.** We're leaning Mitchell here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Mitchell at 46% implied while our model sees 67% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Solecki (5-3) taking on Matt Wiman (10-7).

Solecki is rated at 1032 — 164 points above Wiman's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Solecki's wrestler game against Wiman's knockout artist approach. Solecki looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Wiman is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Solecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Solecki over Matt Wiman.** The model is firm on this one: Solecki at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Solecki at 77% implied while our model sees 86% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (8-3) taking on Mallory Martin (1-2).

Jandiroba is rated at 1457 — 663 points above Martin's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jandiroba rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jandiroba throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Mallory Martin.** We're leaning Jandiroba here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Makhmud Muradov (4-2) taking on Trevor Smith (5-6).

Muradov is rated at 1179 — 245 points above Smith's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muradov throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Muradov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Makhmud Muradov over Trevor Smith.** The model is firm on this one: Muradov at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Muradov at 80% implied while our model sees 86% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.