UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025·Baku, Azerbaijan·12 fights
Model: 5/12(42%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightMISS
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Jr. 39%61% Hill
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hill)
LightweightMISS
Rafael Fiziev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fiziev 33%67% Bahamondes
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (-11.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Bahamondes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Fiziev)
HeavyweightHIT
Curtis Blaydes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Blaydes 68%32% Kuniev
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +793(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Blaydes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kuniev)
Catch WeightHIT
Myktybek Orolbai won by Submission (R1)
Orolbai 74%26% Musayev
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+13.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +290(favors Orolbai)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Orolbai)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Orolbai)
LightweightHIT
Nazim Sadykhov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sadykhov 88%12% Motta
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+9.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +266(favors Sadykhov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Sadykhov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Sadykhov)
FeatherweightHIT
Muhammad Naimov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Naimov 68%32% Grad
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +98(favors Naimov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Grad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Grad)
Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Seokhyeon Ko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ko 18%82% Elliott
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 21% (-2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -356(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Elliott)
MiddleweightMISS
JunYong Park won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Park 40%60% Naurdiev
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Park)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Park)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Naurdiev)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Daria Zhelezniakova won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zhelezniakova 37%63% Mullins
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 31% (+6.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -183(favors Mullins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Mullins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Mullins)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Klaudia Sygula won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sygula 35%65% Alekseeva
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 30% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -220(favors Alekseeva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Alekseeva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Alekseeva)
FlyweightHIT
Tagir Ulanbekov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ulanbekov 83%17% Maksum
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +484(favors Ulanbekov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Ulanbekov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Ulanbekov)
HeavyweightMISS
Mohammed Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 45%55% Abdelwahab
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 40% (+4.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -132(favors Abdelwahab)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Abdelwahab)