UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Saturday, June 21, 2025·Baku, Azerbaijan
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✗
Khalil Rountree Jr. won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Jr. 38%62% Hill
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hill)
Lightweight✗
Rafael Fiziev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fiziev 38%62% Bahamondes
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -64(favors Bahamondes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Bahamondes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Fiziev)
Heavyweight✓
Curtis Blaydes won by Decision - Split (R3)
Blaydes 58%42% Kuniev
LEAN
→Elo gap: +631(favors Blaydes)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Blaydes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kuniev)
Catch Weight✓
Myktybek Orolbai won by Submission (R1)
Orolbai 80%20% Musayev
STRONG
→Elo gap: +195(favors Orolbai)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Orolbai)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Orolbai)
Lightweight✓
Nazim Sadykhov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sadykhov 61%39% Motta
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +159(favors Sadykhov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Sadykhov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Sadykhov)
Featherweight✓
Muhammad Naimov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Naimov 51%49% Grad
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +85(favors Naimov)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Grad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Grad)
Welterweight✗
Seokhyeon Ko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ko 31%69% Elliott
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -245(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Elliott)
Middleweight✗
JunYong Park won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Park 37%63% Naurdiev
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +97(favors Park)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Park)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Naurdiev)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Daria Zhelezniakova won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zhelezniakova 57%43% Mullins
LEAN
→Elo gap: -124(favors Mullins)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Mullins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Mullins)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Klaudia Sygula won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sygula 60%40% Alekseeva
LEAN
→Elo gap: -165(favors Alekseeva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Alekseeva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Alekseeva)
Flyweight✓
Tagir Ulanbekov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ulanbekov 62%38% Maksum
LEAN
→Elo gap: +402(favors Ulanbekov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Ulanbekov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Ulanbekov)
Heavyweight✗
Mohammed Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 47%53% Abdelwahab
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -103(favors Abdelwahab)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Abdelwahab)