UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Saturday, September 21, 2019·Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight
Rodriguez 72%28% Stephens
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+17.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +618(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Stephens)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Rodriguez)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Esparza 56%44% Grasso
LEANMarket: 42% (+14.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +28(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.6(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Esparza)
Flyweight
Moreno 51%49% Askarov
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +96(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Moreno)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Irene Aldana won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldana 86%14% Melo
STRONGMarket: 82% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +69(favors Aldana)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.6(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Aldana)
FeatherweightMISS
Steven Peterson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Peterson 47%53% Bravo
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -74(favors Bravo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Bravo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Peterson)
BantamweightHIT
Jose Quinonez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quinonez 67%33% Huachin
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+6.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +190(favors Quinonez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Quinonez)
FeatherweightMISS
Kyle Nelson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nelson 49%51% Reyes
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-1.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Reyes)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Reyes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Nelson)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Angela Hill won by KO/TKO (R3)
Hill 50%50% Carnelossi
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+0.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -122(favors Carnelossi)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.6(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Hill)
FlyweightHIT
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 82%18% Nam
STRONGMarket: 73% (+8.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +192(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Pettis)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Paul Craig won by Submission (R1)
Craig 73%27% Moreira
CONFIDENTMarket: 50% (+22.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +160(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Moreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Craig)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Bethe Correia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Correia 26%74% Eubanks
CONFIDENTMarket: 35% (-8.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -198(favors Eubanks)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Eubanks)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Eubanks)
LightweightHIT
Claudio Puelles won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Puelles 84%16% Mariano
STRONGMarket: 76% (+7.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +139(favors Puelles)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Puelles)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Puelles)