UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Yair Rodriguez (10-4) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Rodriguez is rated at 1559 — 618 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's all-rounder game against Stephens's striker approach. Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yair Rodriguez over Jeremy Stephens.** We're leaning Rodriguez here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 55% implied while our model sees 72% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Alexa Grasso (8-4-1). Grasso is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Grasso at 1376 versus Esparza at 1274. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Grasso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Carla Esparza over Alexa Grasso.** The model gives Esparza a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Esparza at 42% implied while our model sees 56% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Askar Askarov (3-0-1). Moreno will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Moreno at 1410 versus Askarov at 1285. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Askarov has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreno throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Askarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Askar Askarov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moreno at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Moreno at 41% implied while our model sees 51% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-5) taking on Vanessa Melo (0-3). Aldana is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Aldana is rated at 1331 — 401 points above Melo's 930. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 5.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Melo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Irene Aldana over Vanessa Melo.** The model is firm on this one: Aldana at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Aldana at 82% implied while our model sees 86% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Steven Peterson (3-4) taking on Martin Bravo (1-2).

Peterson is rated at 920 — 172 points above Bravo's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bravo throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Peterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Peterson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Martin Bravo over Steven Peterson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bravo at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jose Quinonez (5-3) taking on Carlos Huachin (0-1). Quinonez is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Quinonez at 882, Huachin at 893. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinonez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinonez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Quinonez over Carlos Huachin.** We're leaning Quinonez here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Quinonez at 60% implied while our model sees 67% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Kyle Nelson (4-5-1) taking on Marco Polo Reyes (4-3).

Nelson is rated at 1271 — 498 points above Reyes's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marco Polo Reyes over Kyle Nelson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Reyes at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Ariane Carnelossi (3-2). Hill will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Hill at 1074 versus Carnelossi at 929. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 6.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Carnelossi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Angela Hill over Ariane Carnelossi.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hill at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Sergio Pettis (8-5) taking on Tyson Nam (3-4).

Pettis is rated at 1235 — 247 points above Nam's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pettis throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Nam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sergio Pettis over Tyson Nam.** The model is firm on this one: Pettis at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Pettis at 73% implied while our model sees 82% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Vinicius Moreira (0-3).

Craig is rated at 1045 — 443 points above Moreira's 602. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreira throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Craig over Vinicius Moreira.** We're leaning Craig here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Craig at 50% implied while our model sees 73% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bethe Correia (5-5-1) taking on Sijara Eubanks (5-4). Eubanks will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Eubanks at 974 versus Correia at 883. That 91-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Correia's striker game against Eubanks's wrestler approach. Correia brings a versatile approach, while Eubanks looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eubanks throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sijara Eubanks over Bethe Correia.** We're leaning Eubanks here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 35% for Correia, but our model sees only 26%. That 8-point gap favoring Eubanks is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Claudio Puelles (5-3) taking on Marcos Mariano (0-1). Mariano is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Puelles is rated at 1040 — 199 points above Mariano's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Puelles throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Puelles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Mariano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Claudio Puelles over Marcos Mariano.** The model is firm on this one: Puelles at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Puelles at 76% implied while our model sees 84% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.