UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Stipe Miocic (14-4) taking on Daniel Cormier (11-2). Miocic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miocic at 1847, Cormier at 1835. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Miocic's striker game against Cormier's wrestler approach. Miocic brings a versatile approach, while Cormier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miocic throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miocic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Miocic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stipe Miocic over Daniel Cormier.** The model gives Miocic a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Miocic at 42% implied while our model sees 63% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Anthony Pettis (10-9). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Diaz carries a modest Elo edge (1557 to 1512), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Diaz's all-rounder game against Pettis's knockout artist approach. Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pettis is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pettis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nate Diaz over Anthony Pettis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Diaz at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Diaz at 47% implied while our model sees 51% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Paulo Costa (6-4) taking on Yoel Romero (9-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Romero at 1613 versus Costa at 1513. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Romero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yoel Romero over Paulo Costa.** The model gives Romero a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Sodiq Yusuff (6-3) taking on Gabriel Benitez (7-7).

Yusuff is rated at 1113 — 257 points above Benitez's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Yusuff's all-rounder game against Benitez's knockout artist approach. Yusuff is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Benitez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yusuff throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Benitez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sodiq Yusuff over Gabriel Benitez.** The model is firm on this one: Yusuff at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Yusuff at 71% implied while our model sees 77% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Ian Heinisch (3-3). Brunson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 365 points above Heinisch's 1037. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Heinisch throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Brunson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Ian Heinisch.** The model gives Brunson a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Brunson at 41% implied while our model sees 56% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Khama Worthy (2-2) taking on Devonte Smith (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Smith at 869 versus Worthy at 782. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 6.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Worthy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Devonte Smith over Khama Worthy.** The model is firm on this one: Smith at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Worthy at 11% implied while our model sees 21% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Raphael Assuncao (12-6). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 608 points above Assuncao's 1099. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sandhagen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Assuncao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sandhagen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Assuncao has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Raphael Assuncao.** We're leaning Sandhagen here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 69% implied while our model sees 72% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Drakkar Klose (9-3) taking on Christos Giagos (6-7).

Klose is rated at 1397 — 457 points above Giagos's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Klose's striker game against Giagos's wrestler approach. Klose brings a versatile approach, while Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klose throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Klose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Drakkar Klose over Christos Giagos.** The model gives Klose a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Catch Weight matchup features Casey Kenney (5-2) taking on Manny Bermudez (3-1). Bermudez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kenney is rated at 1234 — 274 points above Bermudez's 959. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenney throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manny Bermudez over Casey Kenney.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bermudez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Kenney at 39% implied while our model sees 46% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Hannah Cifers (2-4) taking on Jodie Esquibel (0-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cifers at 690, Esquibel at 708. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cifers throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Esquibel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Esquibel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hannah Cifers over Jodie Esquibel.** The model is firm on this one: Cifers at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Cifers at 72% implied while our model sees 80% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyung Ho Kang (8-4) taking on Brandon Davis (2-6).

Kang is rated at 1029 — 204 points above Davis's 825. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kang looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kang the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang over Brandon Davis.** The model gives Kang a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Kang, but our model sees only 59%. That 5-point gap favoring Davis is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Sabina Mazo (3-3) taking on Shana Dobson (2-3).

Dobson carries a modest Elo edge (848 to 804), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Mazo's all-rounder game against Dobson's striker approach. Mazo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dobson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dobson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Mazo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sabina Mazo over Shana Dobson.** The model is firm on this one: Mazo at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Mazo at 55% implied while our model sees 79% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.