UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Liz Carmouche (5-4).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 671 points above Carmouche's 1127. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shevchenko throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Carmouche has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Liz Carmouche. The model is firm on this one: Shevchenko at 87%. The market implies 90% for Shevchenko, but our model sees only 87%. That 3-point gap favoring Carmouche is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Mike Perry (7-7). Luque will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Luque is rated at 1250 — 184 points above Perry's 1066. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Luque is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Perry brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Luque the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Perry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Mike Perry. The model is firm on this one: Luque at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Luque at 68% implied while our model sees 77% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Eduardo Garagorri (1-1) taking on Humberto Bandenay (1-2).

Garagorri carries a modest Elo edge (875 to 838), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bandenay throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bandenay is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Garagorri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Humberto Bandenay over Eduardo Garagorri. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bandenay at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Ilir Latifi (9-6). Oezdemir is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Oezdemir is rated at 1501 — 305 points above Latifi's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Oezdemir's striker game against Latifi's all-rounder approach. Oezdemir brings a versatile approach, while Latifi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Latifi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Latifi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ilir Latifi over Volkan Oezdemir. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Latifi at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Oezdemir, but our model sees only 48%. That 13-point gap favoring Latifi is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Rodolfo Vieira (6-3) taking on Oskar Piechota (2-3). Piechota will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Vieira is rated at 1069 — 238 points above Piechota's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Vieira's wrestler game against Piechota's knockout artist approach. Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Piechota is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Piechota throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Piechota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodolfo Vieira over Oskar Piechota. The model gives Vieira a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Enrique Barzola (6-3) taking on Bobby Moffett (0-1). Moffett is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Barzola is rated at 1071 — 170 points above Moffett's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barzola throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Bobby Moffett. We're leaning Barzola here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Barzola at 59% implied while our model sees 67% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Aleksei Kunchenko (2-1).

Burns is rated at 1379 — 273 points above Kunchenko's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Kunchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Aleksei Kunchenko. The model gives Burns a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Raphael Pessoa (1-1). Gane will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gane is rated at 1884 — 981 points above Pessoa's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pessoa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pessoa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pessoa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Raphael Pessoa. The model is firm on this one: Gane at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Gane at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-7). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pennington at 1206 versus Rodriguez at 1059. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's knockout artist game against Pennington's all-rounder approach. Rodriguez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Pennington is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Tecia Pennington. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Rogerio Bontorin (2-2) taking on Raulian Paiva (3-3). Paiva is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Paiva at 1007 versus Bontorin at 880. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Paiva throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bontorin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Paiva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raulian Paiva over Rogerio Bontorin. The model gives Paiva a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Bontorin, but our model sees only 43%. That 7-point gap favoring Paiva is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Geraldo de Freitas (1-1). Freitas will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 375 points above Freitas's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Freitas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Geraldo de Freitas over Chris Gutierrez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Freitas at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Alex Da Silva (1-2) taking on Kazula Vargas (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Silva at 930, Vargas at 928. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Vargas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Da Silva over Kazula Vargas. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 75%.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Veronica Hardy (4-5) taking on Polyana Viana (4-6). Viana will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hardy is rated at 1091 — 223 points above Viana's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hardy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Viana looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Viana the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Viana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Veronica Hardy over Polyana Viana. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hardy at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.