UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
Saturday, July 27, 2019·Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Model Record: 9/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight✓
Max Holloway won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Holloway 83%17% Edgar
STRONGMarket: 74% (+8.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +242(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.5(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Edgar)
Women's Featherweight✓
Cristiane Justino won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Justino 82%18% Spencer
STRONGMarket: 80% (+2.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +155(favors Justino)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Spencer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Spencer)
Welterweight✓
Geoff Neal won by KO/TKO (R2)
Neal 69%31% Price
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-5.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Price)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Price)
Lightweight✗
Arman Tsarukyan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tsarukyan 47%53% Aubin-Mercier
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-12.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -213(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Aubin-Mercier)
Middleweight✓
Krzysztof Jotko won by Decision - Split (R3)
Jotko 74%26% Barriault
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+12.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +256(favors Jotko)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Jotko)
Women's Flyweight✓
Viviane Araujo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Araujo 66%34% Davis
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+4.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Araujo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Araujo)
Featherweight✓
Hakeem Dawodu won by KO/TKO (R3)
Dawodu 83%17% Horie
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +61(favors Dawodu)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.9(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Horie)
Featherweight✗
Gavin Tucker won by Submission (R3)
Tucker 38%62% Choi
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +47(favors Tucker)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Tucker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Tucker)
Flyweight✓
Deiveson Figueiredo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Figueiredo 55%45% Pantoja
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+9.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -27(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Figueiredo)
Women's Flyweight✓
Gillian Robertson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Robertson 67%33% Frota
CONFIDENTMarket: 57% (+9.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +128(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Frota)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Robertson)
Welterweight✓
Erik Koch won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Koch 53%47% Stewart
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-0.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +67(favors Koch)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Koch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Koch)