UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 712 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holloway's knockout artist game against Edgar's all-rounder approach. Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Edgar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Max Holloway over Frankie Edgar.** The model is firm on this one: Holloway at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 74% implied while our model sees 83% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Cristiane Justino (5-1) taking on Felicia Spencer (2-3).

Justino is rated at 1362 — 172 points above Spencer's 1190. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Justino's striker game against Spencer's all-rounder approach. Justino brings a versatile approach, while Spencer is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Spencer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Justino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cristiane Justino over Felicia Spencer.** The model is firm on this one: Justino at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Geoff Neal (8-5) taking on Niko Price (8-9).

Neal is rated at 1247 — 431 points above Price's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Neal's all-rounder game against Price's knockout artist approach. Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Price is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Neal throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Geoff Neal over Niko Price.** We're leaning Neal here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Neal, but our model sees only 69%. That 6-point gap favoring Price is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Arman Tsarukyan (9-2) taking on Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4).

Tsarukyan is rated at 1836 — 766 points above Aubin-Mercier's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Tsarukyan rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Tsarukyan's striker game against Aubin-Mercier's wrestler approach. Tsarukyan brings a versatile approach, while Aubin-Mercier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aubin-Mercier throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Aubin-Mercier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Arman Tsarukyan.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aubin-Mercier at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Tsarukyan, but our model sees only 47%. That 12-point gap favoring Aubin-Mercier is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9). Jotko will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 267 points above Barriault's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barriault throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Jotko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Marc-Andre Barriault.** We're leaning Jotko here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jotko at 62% implied while our model sees 74% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Viviane Araujo (7-5) taking on Alexis Davis (7-6).

Araujo is rated at 1207 — 178 points above Davis's 1030. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Araujo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Araujo throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Araujo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Araujo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Viviane Araujo over Alexis Davis.** We're leaning Araujo here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Araujo at 62% implied while our model sees 66% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Hakeem Dawodu (6-3) taking on Yoshinori Horie (0-0). Dawodu will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Dawodu is rated at 1090 — 195 points above Horie's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawodu throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Horie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Horie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Hakeem Dawodu over Yoshinori Horie.** The model is firm on this one: Dawodu at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Dawodu at 79% implied while our model sees 83% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Gavin Tucker (4-2) taking on SeungWoo Choi (4-6). Choi is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Tucker is rated at 1018 — 197 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tucker's wrestler game against Choi's striker approach. Tucker looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Choi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tucker throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tucker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tucker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: SeungWoo Choi over Gavin Tucker.** The model gives Choi a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Alexandre Pantoja (14-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Figueiredo at 1490, Pantoja at 1497. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Pantoja has won 8 straight.

The style clash matters here: Figueiredo is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pantoja is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Pantoja the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Pantoja has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Alexandre Pantoja.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Figueiredo at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Figueiredo at 45% implied while our model sees 55% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (12-6) taking on Sarah Frota (0-1). Frota will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 489 points above Frota's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frota throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Frota has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Sarah Frota.** We're leaning Robertson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Robertson at 57% implied while our model sees 67% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Erik Koch (4-5) taking on Kyle Stewart (0-1). Stewart is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Koch is rated at 1017 — 205 points above Stewart's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Koch throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Koch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Koch has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erik Koch over Kyle Stewart.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Koch at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.