UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Edwards: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 314 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Rafael Dos Anjos. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Walt Harris (6-8) taking on Aleksei Oleinik (9-7). Oleinik will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Harris carries a modest Elo edge (1133 to 1073), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Harris's striker game against Oleinik's submission artist approach. Harris brings a versatile approach, while Oleinik is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleinik throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleinik is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Walt Harris over Aleksei Oleinik. The model gives Harris a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Greg Hardy (4-4) taking on Juan Adams (1-2).

Hardy is rated at 958 — 207 points above Adams's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Adams throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Adams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Greg Hardy over Juan Adams. The model gives Hardy a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hardy at 47% implied while our model sees 62% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on James Vick (9-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Vick.

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 424 points above Vick's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hooker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Vick is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Hooker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Vick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hooker over James Vick. The model gives Hooker a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (9-7) taking on Francisco Trinaldo (18-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hernandez at 1469 versus Trinaldo at 1329. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's striker game against Trinaldo's all-rounder approach. Hernandez brings a versatile approach, while Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Francisco Trinaldo. The model is firm on this one: Hernandez at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Hernandez at 66% implied while our model sees 76% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Ben Rothwell (9-7).

Rothwell is rated at 1080 — 222 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rothwell throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Rothwell over Andrei Arlovski. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rothwell at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Arlovski at 37% implied while our model sees 49% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Steven Peterson (3-4). Caceres will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 312 points above Peterson's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Peterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Steven Peterson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Caceres at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Raquel Pennington (13-5) taking on Irene Aldana (8-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pennington at 1411 versus Aldana at 1331. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Pennington rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aldana throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pennington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raquel Pennington over Irene Aldana. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pennington at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 43% implied while our model sees 54% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Klidson Abreu (1-2) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1).

Abreu is rated at 953 — 219 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Abreu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Klidson Abreu over Sam Alvey. The model gives Abreu a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Jennifer Maia (6-5) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-7). Modafferi is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Maia is rated at 1193 — 214 points above Modafferi's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Modafferi throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Modafferi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Modafferi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jennifer Maia over Roxanne Modafferi. The model gives Maia a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ray Borg (7-4) taking on Gabriel Silva (0-1). Silva is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Borg is rated at 1172 — 296 points above Silva's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borg throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ray Borg over Gabriel Silva. The model gives Borg a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Borg, but our model sees only 57%. That 4-point gap favoring Silva is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Mario Bautista (10-3) taking on Jin Soo Son (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bautista.

Bautista is rated at 1566 — 703 points above Son's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Son throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bautista is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Bautista has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Bautista over Jin Soo Son. The model gives Bautista a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Bautista at 49% implied while our model sees 56% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Felipe Colares (2-3) taking on Domingo Pilarte (0-1). Pilarte is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Colares at 875, Pilarte at 882. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Colares throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Colares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Pilarte has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Domingo Pilarte over Felipe Colares. The model is firm on this one: Pilarte at 79%. The market implies 24% for Colares, but our model sees only 21%. That 4-point gap favoring Pilarte is worth watching.