UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Junior Dos Santos (15-7). Ngannou will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 957 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Santos brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Ngannou the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Junior Dos Santos. We're leaning Ngannou here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Benavidez (15-5) taking on Jussier Formiga (9-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Benavidez at 1291 versus Formiga at 1149. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benavidez throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Benavidez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Formiga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Benavidez over Jussier Formiga. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Benavidez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5).

Martin carries a modest Elo edge (1419 to 1371), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Maia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Martin looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Martin the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Demian Maia. The model gives Martin a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Vinc Pichel (7-4) taking on Roosevelt Roberts (4-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Roberts.

Pichel is rated at 1062 — 177 points above Roberts's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pichel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Vinc Pichel. The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 75%. The market implies 30% for Pichel, but our model sees only 25%. That 5-point gap favoring Roberts is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (13-11) taking on Marco Polo Reyes (4-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Reyes.

Dober is rated at 1083 — 310 points above Reyes's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dober's all-rounder game against Reyes's striker approach. Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Reyes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dober is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drew Dober over Marco Polo Reyes. The model is firm on this one: Dober at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Dober at 78% implied while our model sees 87% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-5-1) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Craig.

Menifield is rated at 1207 — 162 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Menifield is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Craig the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menifield throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Menifield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alonzo Menifield over Paul Craig. The model is firm on this one: Menifield at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Menifield at 73% implied while our model sees 79% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricardo Ramos (8-6) taking on Journey Newson (1-3). Ramos is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ramos at 828, Newson at 815. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Newson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Journey Newson. The model is firm on this one: Ramos at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Ramos at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Vinicius Moreira (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Moreira.

Anders is rated at 1106 — 504 points above Moreira's 602. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moreira throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Anders has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eryk Anders over Vinicius Moreira. We're leaning Anders here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Dan Moret (0-2). Moret is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Gordon is rated at 1209 — 411 points above Moret's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gordon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Gordon over Dan Moret. The model is firm on this one: Gordon at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Gordon at 75% implied while our model sees 83% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dalcha Lungiambula (2-4) taking on Dequan Townsend (0-3). Townsend is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lungiambula carries a modest Elo edge (739 to 706), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Townsend throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Townsend is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Townsend has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dalcha Lungiambula over Dequan Townsend. The model is firm on this one: Lungiambula at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Lungiambula at 78% implied while our model sees 87% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Ribas (7-5) taking on Emily Whitmire (2-3). Ribas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ribas is rated at 1048 — 345 points above Whitmire's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ribas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Whitmire looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Whitmire the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whitmire throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Whitmire is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Emily Whitmire. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ribas at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ribas at 37% implied while our model sees 50% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Maurice Greene (4-3) taking on Junior Albini (1-3). Greene is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Greene at 906 versus Albini at 818. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Greene throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Albini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Greene has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maurice Greene over Junior Albini. The model gives Greene a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Greene at 51% implied while our model sees 58% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.