UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Kevin Lee (11-7). Lee will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Anjos at 1282 versus Lee at 1197. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Anjos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lee the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Anjos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Rafael Dos Anjos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lee at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Ian Heinisch (3-3) taking on Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4). Junior is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Junior at 1144 versus Heinisch at 1037. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Heinisch is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Junior the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Heinisch throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Junior has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Ian Heinisch. The model gives Junior a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Felicia Spencer (2-3) taking on Megan Anderson (3-2). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Spencer at 1190, Anderson at 1187. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Spencer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Megan Anderson over Felicia Spencer. The model is firm on this one: Anderson at 78%. The market implies 34% for Spencer, but our model sees only 22%. That 12-point gap favoring Anderson is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Vicente Luque (16-7) taking on Derrick Krantz (0-1). Luque will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Luque is rated at 1250 — 332 points above Krantz's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Krantz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Derrick Krantz. The model is firm on this one: Luque at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Nik Lentz (14-8-1). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 687 points above Lentz's 1159. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lentz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lentz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Nik Lentz. The model is firm on this one: Oliveira at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 77% implied while our model sees 89% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Davi Ramos (4-2) taking on Austin Hubbard (4-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Hubbard.

Ramos is rated at 1160 — 343 points above Hubbard's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hubbard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ramos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Davi Ramos over Austin Hubbard. The model is firm on this one: Ramos at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Aspen Ladd (4-2) taking on Sijara Eubanks (5-4).

Ladd is rated at 1124 — 150 points above Eubanks's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ladd throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Eubanks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Eubanks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aspen Ladd over Sijara Eubanks. We're leaning Ladd here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Desmond Green (3-3) taking on Charles Jourdain (7-7-1). Green will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jourdain at 1354 versus Green at 1221. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Green's striker game against Jourdain's wrestler approach. Green brings a versatile approach, while Jourdain looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jourdain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Desmond Green over Charles Jourdain. The model is firm on this one: Green at 83%. The market implies 87% for Green, but our model sees only 83%. That 4-point gap favoring Jourdain is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Danny Roberts (7-6).

Pereira is rated at 1113 — 206 points above Roberts's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's knockout artist game against Roberts's all-rounder approach. Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Roberts is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Roberts over Michel Pereira. The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 78%. The market implies 31% for Pereira, but our model sees only 22%. That 9-point gap favoring Roberts is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Grant Dawson (11-1-1) taking on Michael Trizano (3-3).

Dawson is rated at 1336 — 263 points above Trizano's 1073. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dawson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dawson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Trizano is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dawson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dawson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dawson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Trizano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Trizano over Grant Dawson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Trizano at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Patrick Cummins (6-6).

Herman is rated at 1045 — 178 points above Cummins's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Herman's all-rounder game against Cummins's striker approach. Herman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cummins brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cummins over Ed Herman. We're leaning Cummins here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 31% for Herman, but our model sees only 27%. That 4-point gap favoring Cummins is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Trevin Giles (7-6).

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 513 points above Giles's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cummings looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Giles is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cummings the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giles throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Giles is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevin Giles over Zak Cummings. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Giles at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Cummings at 37% implied while our model sees 50% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Julio Arce (5-4) taking on Julian Erosa (9-7). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Erosa at 1280 versus Arce at 1167. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Erosa has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Arce's all-rounder game against Erosa's knockout artist approach. Arce is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Erosa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arce throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julio Arce over Julian Erosa. The model is firm on this one: Arce at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.