UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-8) taking on Jacare Souza (9-7). Hermansson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Souza at 1381 versus Hermansson at 1299. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Hermansson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hermansson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Jacare Souza. We're leaning Hermansson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Greg Hardy (4-5) taking on Dmitrii Smoliakov (0-3). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 1032 — 504 points above Smoliakov's 528. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Smoliakov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Greg Hardy over Dmitrii Smoliakov. The model is firm on this one: Hardy at 81%.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Perry (7-8) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-10). Oliveira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Perry at 1226 versus Oliveira at 1099. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Perry's striker game against Oliveira's all-rounder approach. Perry brings a versatile approach, while Oliveira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Mike Perry. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Perry at 39% implied while our model sees 48% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-7) taking on Ion Cutelaba (9-10-1).

Teixeira is rated at 1677 — 372 points above Cutelaba's 1305. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's wrestler game against Cutelaba's striker approach. Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cutelaba brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Glover Teixeira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cutelaba at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-5) taking on John Lineker (12-4). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sandhagen is rated at 1790 — 241 points above Lineker's 1549. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sandhagen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lineker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sandhagen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over John Lineker. We're leaning Sandhagen here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 41% implied while our model sees 66% — a 25-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Roosevelt Roberts (4-5) taking on Thomas Gifford (0-2).

Roberts is rated at 943 — 192 points above Gifford's 752. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gifford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gifford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Thomas Gifford. The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Roberts at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Takashi Sato (2-5) taking on Ben Saunders (9-10). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Saunders carries a modest Elo edge (937 to 900), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Sato's striker game against Saunders's all-rounder approach. Sato brings a versatile approach, while Saunders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Saunders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Takashi Sato over Ben Saunders. We're leaning Sato here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Augusto Sakai (5-4) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-18).

Sakai is rated at 1219 — 227 points above Arlovski's 993. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sakai's striker game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Sakai brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakai throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Augusto Sakai over Andrei Arlovski. We're leaning Sakai here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sakai at 60% implied while our model sees 73% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-6) taking on Virna Jandiroba (9-4).

Jandiroba is rated at 1586 — 212 points above Esparza's 1374. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Esparza throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Carla Esparza. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jandiroba at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Esparza, but our model sees only 48%. That 4-point gap favoring Jandiroba is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-9) taking on Mike Davis (5-2).

Burns is rated at 1542 — 246 points above Davis's 1297. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Mike Davis. The model gives Burns a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Burns, but our model sees only 64%. That 6-point gap favoring Davis is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-18) taking on Jason Gonzalez (1-3). Gonzalez is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1295 — 391 points above Gonzalez's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Gonzalez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Jason Gonzalez. We're leaning Miller here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 55% implied while our model sees 68% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-16) taking on Jodie Esquibel (0-4).

Hill is rated at 1147 — 526 points above Esquibel's 621. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Angela Hill over Jodie Esquibel. The model is firm on this one: Hill at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Dhiego Lima (4-7) taking on Court McGee (11-13). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lima.

There's a real Elo separation here: McGee at 1111 versus Lima at 989. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lima's striker game against McGee's wrestler approach. Lima brings a versatile approach, while McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Court McGee over Dhiego Lima. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McGee at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 39% implied while our model sees 49% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.