UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Jack Hermansson (11-7) taking on Jacare Souza (9-6). Hermansson will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Souza carries a modest Elo edge (1187 to 1117), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Hermansson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hermansson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Hermansson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Jacare Souza.** The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Greg Hardy (4-4) taking on Dmitrii Smoliakov (0-2). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Hardy is rated at 958 — 282 points above Smoliakov's 676. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hardy throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Smoliakov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Greg Hardy over Dmitrii Smoliakov.** The model is firm on this one: Hardy at 80%.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Perry (7-7) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9). Oliveira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Perry at 1066 versus Oliveira at 934. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Perry's striker game against Oliveira's submission artist approach. Perry brings a versatile approach, while Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Mike Perry.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Perry at 39% implied while our model sees 46% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1).

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 449 points above Cutelaba's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Teixeira's wrestler game against Cutelaba's striker approach. Teixeira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cutelaba brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Glover Teixeira.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cutelaba at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on John Lineker (12-3). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 253 points above Lineker's 1455. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sandhagen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lineker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sandhagen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over John Lineker.** The model gives Sandhagen a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 41% implied while our model sees 59% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Roosevelt Roberts (4-4) taking on Thomas Gifford (0-1).

Roberts carries a modest Elo edge (885 to 821), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gifford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gifford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roosevelt Roberts over Thomas Gifford.** The model is firm on this one: Roberts at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Roberts at 80% implied while our model sees 87% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Takashi Sato (2-4) taking on Ben Saunders (9-9). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Sato carries a modest Elo edge (855 to 812), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Sato's striker game against Saunders's all-rounder approach. Sato brings a versatile approach, while Saunders is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saunders throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Saunders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sato has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Takashi Sato over Ben Saunders.** The model gives Sato a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Sato, but our model sees only 63%. That 4-point gap favoring Saunders is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Augusto Sakai (4-4) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).

Sakai is rated at 1122 — 265 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sakai's striker game against Arlovski's all-rounder approach. Sakai brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakai throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Augusto Sakai over Andrei Arlovski.** The model gives Sakai a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Virna Jandiroba (8-3).

Jandiroba is rated at 1457 — 183 points above Esparza's 1274. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jandiroba has won 5 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Esparza throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Esparza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Carla Esparza.** The model gives Jandiroba a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Esparza, but our model sees only 44%. That 8-point gap favoring Jandiroba is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Mike Davis (4-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Burns at 1379 versus Davis at 1249. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Mike Davis.** The model gives Burns a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Burns, but our model sees only 60%. That 10-point gap favoring Davis is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Jason Gonzalez (1-2). Gonzalez is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Miller is rated at 1213 — 326 points above Gonzalez's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Gonzalez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jim Miller over Jason Gonzalez.** The model gives Miller a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 55% implied while our model sees 60% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Jodie Esquibel (0-3).

Hill is rated at 1074 — 365 points above Esquibel's 708. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Angela Hill over Jodie Esquibel.** The model is firm on this one: Hill at 84%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Dhiego Lima (4-6) taking on Court McGee (11-12). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Lima.

There's a real Elo separation here: McGee at 1037 versus Lima at 943. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lima's striker game against McGee's wrestler approach. Lima brings a versatile approach, while McGee looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McGee throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McGee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. McGee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Court McGee over Dhiego Lima.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McGee at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 39% implied while our model sees 49% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.