UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on Darren Till (6-4-1).

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 283 points above Till's 1296. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Masvidal's all-rounder game against Till's striker approach. Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Till brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Masvidal throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Till is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Till has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Till over Jorge Masvidal.** The model is firm on this one: Till at 80%. The market implies 33% for Masvidal, but our model sees only 20%. That 13-point gap favoring Till is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Gunnar Nelson (10-5). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 286 points above Nelson's 1310. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Leon Edwards over Gunnar Nelson.** We're leaning Edwards here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 57% implied while our model sees 69% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dominick Reyes (9-4) taking on Volkan Oezdemir (8-7). Reyes is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Reyes at 1529, Oezdemir at 1501. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Reyes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Reyes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Oezdemir brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Reyes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dominick Reyes over Volkan Oezdemir.** The model is firm on this one: Reyes at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Reyes at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (9-3) taking on Jose Quinonez (5-3).

Wood is rated at 1389 — 507 points above Quinonez's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Quinonez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Quinonez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinonez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Jose Quinonez.** The model is firm on this one: Wood at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Claudio Silva (5-2) taking on Danny Roberts (7-6). Roberts is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1053 versus Roberts at 906. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Roberts is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Roberts over Claudio Silva.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Roberts at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Silva, but our model sees only 48%. That 10-point gap favoring Roberts is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Marshman (3-4) taking on John Phillips (1-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Marshman at 915 versus Phillips at 792. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marshman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Marshman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Marshman over John Phillips.** We're leaning Marshman here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Marshman at 57% implied while our model sees 69% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Jordan Rinaldi (2-2). Rinaldi is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Allen is rated at 1468 — 397 points above Rinaldi's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Arnold Allen over Jordan Rinaldi.** We're leaning Allen here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Allen at 58% implied while our model sees 67% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Marc Diakiese (7-7) taking on Joe Duffy (4-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Diakiese at 1050 versus Duffy at 958. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Diakiese brings a versatile approach, while Duffy is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Duffy the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duffy throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Duffy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Duffy over Marc Diakiese.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Duffy at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Saparbeg Safarov (1-2) taking on Nicolae Negumereanu (4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Negumereanu at 1019 versus Safarov at 916. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Negumereanu has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Safarov throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Safarov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Negumereanu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nicolae Negumereanu over Saparbeg Safarov.** The model gives Negumereanu a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Dan Ige (11-9) taking on Danny Henry (2-1). Henry is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ige is rated at 1235 — 280 points above Henry's 956. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ige is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dan Ige over Danny Henry.** We're leaning Ige here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ige at 57% implied while our model sees 72% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Molly McCann (7-6) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-7). Cachoeira is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cachoeira carries a modest Elo edge (903 to 834), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is McCann's all-rounder game against Cachoeira's striker approach. McCann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cachoeira brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cachoeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Molly McCann over Priscila Cachoeira.** The model gives McCann a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Mike Grundy (1-2) taking on Nad Narimani (2-1).

Narimani carries a modest Elo edge (941 to 897), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Narimani throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Narimani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Grundy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nad Narimani over Mike Grundy.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Narimani at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Grundy at 45% implied while our model sees 48% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.