UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-10) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-2).

Blachowicz is rated at 1703 — 277 points above Santos's 1426. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's knockout artist game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Santos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Santos over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 54% implied while our model sees 60% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-11) taking on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (11-7). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Lima is rated at 1346 — 275 points above Struve's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Struve is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lima looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lima the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. The model gives Struve a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Struve at 51% implied while our model sees 63% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michal Oleksiejczuk (10-7) taking on Gian Villante (7-11). Villante is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1312 — 505 points above Villante's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oleksiejczuk throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oleksiejczuk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk over Gian Villante. The model is firm on this one: Oleksiejczuk at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Oleksiejczuk at 67% implied while our model sees 80% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Liz Carmouche (5-5) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-8).

Carmouche is rated at 1125 — 329 points above Pudilova's 796. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Carmouche's striker game against Pudilova's all-rounder approach. Carmouche brings a versatile approach, while Pudilova is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pudilova throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Carmouche has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liz Carmouche over Lucie Pudilova. We're leaning Carmouche here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Carmouche at 58% implied while our model sees 69% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (12-4) taking on John Dodson (10-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Yan.

Yan is rated at 1857 — 481 points above Dodson's 1376. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over John Dodson. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Yan at 71% implied while our model sees 79% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-2-1) taking on Klidson Abreu (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ankalaev.

Ankalaev is rated at 1890 — 924 points above Abreu's 966. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ankalaev throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Abreu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Abreu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Klidson Abreu. The model gives Ankalaev a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dwight Grant (3-5) taking on Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (1-2).

Grant carries a modest Elo edge (858 to 792), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dwight Grant over Carlo Pedersoli Jr.. The model gives Grant a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Grant at 41% implied while our model sees 55% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Chris Fishgold (1-3) taking on Daniel Teymur (1-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Fishgold.

Fishgold carries a modest Elo edge (865 to 821), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fishgold throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fishgold is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Teymur has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Fishgold over Daniel Teymur. We're leaning Fishgold here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Fishgold at 68% implied while our model sees 74% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gillian Robertson (14-6) taking on Veronica Hardy (5-5).

Robertson is rated at 1422 — 327 points above Hardy's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hardy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Veronica Hardy. We're leaning Robertson here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Hadzovic (4-6) taking on Marco Polo Reyes (4-4).

Hadzovic is rated at 936 — 156 points above Reyes's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damir Hadzovic over Marco Polo Reyes. The model gives Hadzovic a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hadzovic at 55% implied while our model sees 59% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Ismail Naurdiev (4-3) taking on Michel Prazeres (10-4). Naurdiev is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Prazeres carries a modest Elo edge (1296 to 1226), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Naurdiev's striker game against Prazeres's wrestler approach. Naurdiev brings a versatile approach, while Prazeres looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prazeres throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Prazeres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Naurdiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Prazeres over Ismail Naurdiev. The model is firm on this one: Prazeres at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-7) taking on Rustam Khabilov (10-3).

Khabilov is rated at 1501 — 174 points above Ferreira's 1327. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ferreira's all-rounder game against Khabilov's striker approach. Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Khabilov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Khabilov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Diego Ferreira. The model gives Khabilov a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Ismagulov (5-2) taking on Joel Alvarez (8-2). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1662 — 372 points above Ismagulov's 1290. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Ismagulov's striker game against Alvarez's all-rounder approach. Ismagulov brings a versatile approach, while Alvarez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ismagulov throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ismagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damir Ismagulov over Joel Alvarez. The model is firm on this one: Ismagulov at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Ismagulov at 74% implied while our model sees 78% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.